The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Jordanstine]

Some quick long term (conservative) projections...

5th weekend (June 1) = $21.0 million ($7.7 million Tue-Thu)
6th weekend (June 8) = $12.3 million ($7.7 million Mon-Thu)
7th weekend (June 15) = $7.5 million ($4.2 million Mon-Thu)
8th weekend (June 22) = $4.2 million ($2.9 million Mon-Thu)
9th weekend (June 29) = $2.4 million ($1.7 million Mon-Thu)

$47.4 million weekend + $24.3 weekdays = $71.7 million more by the end of June?

If that's accurate... The Avengers would be $595.6 million before July starts?

5th weekend actuals is about $20.5M and a total of $29.1M.

Looking back, my estimates had a higher weekend but lower weekday at $28.7M total. The Avengers did about the same, well $400K more than my estimate for the full 5th week.

Snow White and The Huntsman certainly got some thunder this weekend from both Men In Black 3, and The Avengers.

Revising this, now with Prometheus coming out...

Currently at $552.7M.

6th weekend (June 8) = $11.6 million ($7.6 million Mon-Thu)
7th weekend (June 15) = $6.8 million ($4.0 million Mon-Thu)
8th weekend (June 22) = $3.9 million ($2.6 million Mon-Thu)
9th weekend (June 29) = $2.2 million ($1.5 million Mon-Thu)

$24.6M + $15.9M = $40.5M.

Total by end of June weekend = $592.9M.

 

[Xeno]

Does Fox own the rights to those characters?

In all honesty Marvel need to go to war to get some of these characters back. In some ways i am honestly hoping for the failure of TASM so that no sequels get green lit. That's the surest way to get Spider-man back.

I think there's a good chance they get F4 back. Fox is pretty close to violating the contract terms with Marvel. The reboot project is in development hell and Fox has yet to green light a script to move forward with.

Spider-man, X-men and F4 are all tier 1 properties with Marvel and I think to move forward they have to get them back under their own control.

Sony has already greenlit the sequel for ASM with a May 2, 2014 release date. That could change if ASM is a massive bomb, but even then Sony can't afford to give up those rights without getting tens of millions of dollars in exchange. If the studio goes bankrupt Marvel better have a clause in its contract with Sony that mandates that the rights revert, or they could be auctioned by a bankruptcy court to the highest bidder.


Their best chance of getting rights back could lie with the Fantastic Four. Fox hasn't done anything more than make noises about hiring a director for the franchise. It's probably a matter of the studio's stinginess more than anything else.

Personally, I really don't understand Fox's perceived insistence on rebooting both FF and DD, because as we have seen in this summer, there's a real risk on developing big-budgeted movies and they often don't pan out. Even with well-received First Class didn't really generate the kind of money that makes it a huge blockbuster.

I'm most perplexed about DD's rights, because Elektra was last released in 2005, 7 years prior, and by all means it should've returned to Marvel already. It just seems to prove that the wording on those agreements Marvel signed away to the other studios gave them extremely leniency in retaining those rights, and even some apparent movement on greenlighting the movie would still allow them to keep the rights due to a fulfillment of their obligation. I do think it is a tactic for Fox to try to entice Disney to fork over millions in an effort to buy those rights back, but Disney has indicated that they will not do that. Maybe this is a Hollywood case of who blinks first.

Because Fox is never going to invest $200 million in any Marvel movie, they are taking far less risk than other studios in rebooting franchises. They keep budgets low by skimping on FX sequences and other production costs. If they do FF it will be in the range of X:FC, around $150 million; DD could be $30 million or more less than that. Fox's cheapness helps its bottom line but it also keeps the films from being as profitable as they could be with top of the line FX.

 

[Tymminator]

Re: Sony ever selling Spidey...

Ok, let's say it goes to the highest bidder in that case...they would not be getting anything but ticket sales, cause that's all Sony has. Tv/toon rights went to Marvel two years ago, merchandizing rights went to Marvel late last year. Every action figure, poster, lunchbox, DVD/Blu-ray that's sold doesn't give Sony a dime...they only get ticket sales and a studio gets like what...roughly 50-55% of the domestic, and if they are VERY lucky 40% of the foriegn(but after expenses you are lucky to get 15% of that.)

IMO we will see this go to Marvel before anyone else, especially with Sony bleeding billions like they have for the last few years, and getting a cut of a movie that makes hundreds of millions every so many years when you don't even get a cut of the merchandising when you are bleeding several billions SEVERAL YEARS IN A ROW does not help you at all.

We will see, but I myself will not be surprised if we hear something by end of year.

 

[Jordanstine]

Re: Sony ever selling Spidey...

Ok, let's say it goes to the highest bidder in that case...they would not be getting anything but ticket sales, cause that's all Sony has. Tv/toon rights went to Marvel two years ago, merchandizing rights went to Marvel late last year. Every action figure, poster, lunchbox, DVD/Blu-ray that's sold doesn't give Sony a dime...they only get ticket sales and a studio gets like what...roughly 50-55% of the domestic, and if they are VERY lucky 40% of the foriegn(but after expenses you are lucky to get 15% of that.)

IMO we will see this go to Marvel before anyone else, especially with Sony bleeding billions like they have for the last few years, and getting a cut of a movie that makes hundreds of millions every so many years when you don't even get a cut of the merchandising when you are bleeding several billions SEVERAL YEARS IN A ROW does not help you at all.

We will see, but I myself will not be surprised if we hear something by end of year.

Bloomberg back in 2011 had a list of companies going under in 2012.

#1 on their list basically predicted that Sony will sell off Columbia Pictures around this year since it's one of their "easier" assets to sell.

Don't know how accurate the info still is from last year. Two years before that, there were news that Paramount wanted to buy Columbia Pictures... which would've meant Spider-Man in the same house as Iron Man, etc.

I'm guessing if TASM doesn't do well enough for Sony this summer, then hello Marvel Studios!

(one can keep dreaming)

 

[Tony Stark]

Sony has already greenlit the sequel for ASM with a May 2, 2014 release date. That could change if ASM is a massive bomb, but even then Sony can't afford to give up those rights without getting tens of millions of dollars in exchange. If the studio goes bankrupt Marvel better have a clause in its contract with Sony that mandates that the rights revert, or they could be auctioned by a bankruptcy court to the highest bidder.

I think they reserved that because it's the hot spot for Marvel properties, not because it' officially greenlit, but they had to do something to reserve that time slot. Other wise Marvel will grab it back for Cap 2.

As far as the contract clause, I can almost guarantee Marvel will get the rights back in that situation. Remember when Marvel took Sony to court after the success of the first Spider-man where Sony was marketing and making money off Spider-man without Marvel's consent? It nearly derailed Spider-man 2 from being made.

 

[Pink Ranger]

I'd be looking more forward to seeing the F4 back in Marvel's hands, as no other creative force in Hollywood seems to understand that property at all. At least Spider Man on balance hasn't been terribly executed.

 

[Quasimod0]

I just wanna see galactus and doom fight the avengers

 

[Aztec]

I just wanna see galactus and doom fight the avengers

Agreed. You can keep the Fantastic Four. They stink. It's their villains I want!

 

[Stark Bauer]

Agreed. You can keep the Fantastic Four. They stink. It's their villains I want!

No they dont. I want to see an Avengers vs. Fantastic Four movie. Just so I can see this:

this could also be exciting:

Of course they have to fight first,

then later realize they are on the same team and have to join forces to defeat Dr. Doom, Loki, Red Skull, Mole Man, Ultron, Mandarin, The Leader, M.O.D.O.K., Galactus and Thanos. ALL AT THE SAME TIME.

And hopefully Mahvel gets the rights back for Spidey so he can help them both out since both teams HQs are in NEW YORK!

I want to say these 6 threads have been very fun so far. You guys are awesome!

 

[Rock Sexton]

No they dont. I want to see an Avengers vs. Fantastic Four movie. Just so I can see this:

Iron Man vs. Human Torch could also be exciting. Of course they have to fight first, then later realize they are on the same team and have to join forces to defeat a mighty foe such as Galactus and Thanos.

I want to say these 6 threads have been very fun so far. You guys are awesome!

Not ever gonna happen.

 

[Flemm]

Agreed. You can keep the Fantastic Four. They stink. It's their villains I want!

Ha, yeah. I'd actually be really curious, though, to see what Marvel studios would do with the FF. That property has really been the hardest to update and keep relevant, I think, even in the comics.

I think it's partly that the "super hero family" concept keeps it rather static and old-fashioned.

Reed Richards is a genius inventor, which overlaps with Tony Stark, but Tony is more interesting otherwise, especially his movie-verse incarnation. The Avengers are Earth's Mightiest, and they have the Shield connection. Many of the Avengers can carry their own movies, the FF members cannot.

So... I dunno. I don't see where the FF fit, really, alongside the Avengers.

 

[Raiden]

Ha, yeah. I'd actually be really curious, though, to see what Marvel studios would do with the FF. That property has really been the hardest to update and keep relevant, I think, even in the comics.

I think it's partly that the "super hero family" concept keeps it rather static and old-fashioned.

Reed Richards is a genius inventor, which overlaps with Tony Stark, but Tony is more interesting otherwise, especially his movie-verse incarnation. The Avengers are Earth's Mightiest, and they have the Shield connection. Many of the Avengers can carry their own movies, the FF members cannot.

So... I dunno. I don't see where the FF fit, really, alongside the Avengers.

I think FF can be successful on the big screen, but it needs a great director, script, and a talented cast to pull off. If The Incredibles can get it done, I don't see why FF cannot. Heck, get Brad Bird to direct it! But I want FF to be in MCU, and not over at Fox. Still wondering why the rights still haven't revert back to Marvel yet despite the fact that it's been over 5 years since FF2 was released.

 

[Flemm]

I think FF can be successful on the big screen, but it needs a great director, script, and a talented cast to pull off. If The Incredibles can get it done, I don't see why FF cannot. Heck, get Brad Bird to direct it! But I want FF to be in MCU, and not over at Fox. Still wondering why the rights still haven't revert back to Marvel yet despite the fact that it's been over 5 years since FF2 was released.

Well, I'm certainly not saying it can't be done. Moreso that I have a bit of a hard time envisioning it. Whereas, even with some lesser known properties, like Dr. Strange or Black Panther, I can easily see how they could be made to work alongside what's already established in the MCU. (For one thing, they can join the Avengers.)

X-Men, Spidey, all the minor players, the cosmic stuff... it's easy to see where they would fit, but with the FF, I don't immediately see it. Other than maybe that they are the other, less interesting super team, I guess? The FF would need a "niche" in the MCU, but I'm not sure what that would be, other than "Avengers Light."

For example, Stark Tower (Avengers Tower) is basically the Baxter Building already. I guess you could play it in such a way as to make them the young, upstart superteam, maybe.

 

[Superhero 101]

Agreed. You can keep the Fantastic Four. They stink. It's their villains I want!

Haha so true

 

[Mysteryman]

Galactus is definitely part of the FF copyright .
He might be a cosmic cloud for the foreseeable future .

 

[The Ironstar]

Ha! This is funny.

http://www.mtv.com/news/articles/1686356/avengers-clark-gregg-movie-awards.jhtml

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

If Disney paid Fox a lump sum for X-men, Fantastic Four, and Daredevil they would own almost the entire Marvel Universe.

I hope they do just that.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Does Fox own the rights to those characters?

In all honesty Marvel need to go to war to get some of these characters back. In some ways i am honestly hoping for the failure of TASM so that no sequels get green lit. That's the surest way to get Spider-man back.

That wouldn't help Marvel or the future of the Spider-man franchise to be honest. If Marvel were to get Spider-man back after another lackluster film from Sony what are they going to do with the character? Hold onto him for years and try another reboot (which I'm sure audiences are already sick of)? If TASM did bomb I doubt they would attempt to make another Spider-man movie right away since TASM under-performing would just prove that interest is waning in that franchise. The general movie-goer doesn't keep tabs on which studio owns the rights to the character so if TASM bombs they're not going to suddenly come back for another Spider-man movie even if Marvel/Disney took over. A third reboot is just too much regardless of who's in charge. TASM is make or break for this franchise right now. I hope it succeeds.

 

[Xeno]

That wouldn't help Marvel or the future of the Spider-man franchise to be honest. If Marvel were to get Spider-man back after another lackluster film from Sony what are they going to do with the character? Hold onto him for years and try another reboot (which I'm sure audiences are already sick of)? If TASM did bomb I doubt they would attempt to make another Spider-man movie right away since TASM under-performing would just prove that interest is waning in that franchise. The general movie-goer doesn't keep tabs on which studio owns the rights to the character so if TASM bombs they're not going to suddenly come back for another Spider-man movie even if Marvel/Disney took over. A third reboot is just too much regardless of who's in charge. TASM is make or break for this franchise right now. I hope it succeeds.

Marvel could do what they did with Hulk after his two cinematic misfires: Put Spider-Man in an Avengers sequel, get his characterization right, make the audience fall in love with him again, then relaunch his solo series. And next time, don't retell his origin, but jump right back into the thick of things with a villain who hasn't appeared yet and a fresh take on Peter Parker's life beyond high school/college and Spider-Man's career as a hero.

 

[spider-neil]

I have my fingers crossed for a huge Spidey success. If Sony is to fold, Spidey isn't going to save it. A failed Spidey franchise at Marvel is still a failed franchise. The GA couldn't care less which studio makes movies, if they didn't want to watch a Sony Spidey they wont wont to watch a Marvel Spidey. Case in point is The Hulk/TIH.

I don't have a problem with Sony owning Spidey.

1. Sony have done 'okay' by Spidey.
(imho) we've had one good movie, one freaking amazing movie and one poor movie. So Sony's batting average is at worst 'good'.

2. Different studios = diverse vision.
TA, ASM, TDKR. 3 superhero movies, and 3 completely different movie tones and themes. Cap and Thor (at least to me) 'felt' like very similar movies and that is the whole point of Marvel movies, they are all supposed to feel like the same universe. I want diversity.

3. I just want Spidey to just GET ON WITH IT!
If Marvel gets their hands on Spidey one of the following will happen;
a) They'll reboot it, AGAIN! Another origin story (again!) a reintroduction to th character (again!) recasting of the characters (again!). Yay...I can't wait.

b) They'll continue with the same cast, crew and setting.
In which case, who cares if it is Marvel or Sony making the movie?

The only upside I see to Spidey being part of the Marvel studios is he would appear in the Avengers and if you ask me the Avengers has enough characters as it is. There is of course the possiblity of crossovers, for example Spidey and Daredevil but that is pretty much a gimmick and I don't want a gimmick I want to see a MOVIE, a movie that fleshes out the characters and introduces themes.

So bottom line, you'll forgive me if I hope ASM is a success.

Lastly congrets to Avengers for becoming the number 1 superhero movie of all time. I don't see any other SH movie beating it apart from Avengers 2.

 

[Perfect Cell]

3. I just want Spidey to just GET ON WITH IT!
If Marvel gets their hands on Spidey one of the following will happen;
a) They'll reboot it, AGAIN! Another origin story (again!) a reintroduction to th character (again!) recasting of the characters (again!). Yay...I can't wait.

I kind of hope that they would pull a move similar to The Incredible Hulk, where they relegate the retelling of Spidey's origin to an opening credits montage. I mean, everyone knows the story, so let's just jump in. But, the more likelihood is that you're probably right.

 

[spider-neil]

I kind of hope that they would pull a move similar to The Incredible Hulk, where they relegate the retelling of Spidey's origin to an opening credits montage. I mean, everyone knows the story, so let's just jump in. But, the more likelihood is that you're probably right.

I've ony enjoyed watching 3 origins, Batman (BB) Spidey (Spider-Man) Iron Man (IM). And yet I have had to sit through countless origins, again and again and again. Put superhero movies to one side, imagine if ALL movies had origins for the main character. Blade Runner, you are shown how Dekkard got his job. Star Wars, you see how Han got the MF. Yay! That would have added lots to those movies and improved them for sure.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

Agreed. You can keep the Fantastic Four. They stink. It's their villains I want!

 

[Themanofbat]

I want Marvel to own all their characters, because I wanna see a MTU style movie of The Tomorrow War... that would be cinematic beauty...

 

[Raiden]

I kind of hope that they would pull a move similar to The Incredible Hulk, where they relegate the retelling of Spidey's origin to an opening credits montage. I mean, everyone knows the story, so let's just jump in. But, the more likelihood is that you're probably right.

I think if Marvel gets the Spider-Man rights from Sony after ASM, this is what they will do. They can even keep Andrew Garfield as Peter Parker so it'd be like a sequel to ASM, and after TA2 they can probably make a continuation of Spider-Man's adventures, but this time rooted in MCU.