The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

[Superhero 101]

Well you never now... ticket prices might go up a few bucks by 2015 i remember when they used to be 6 bucks

 

[Bruce Malone]

I don't see avatar 2 or 3 making as much as the 1st unless they're delayed to 2020 when ticket prices are $18.

When you have a film that sort of becomes a pop culture phenomena it's often hard for the sequel to top it due to the novelty of it being lost the 2nd time around.

 

[TheVileOne]

i'm pretty sure i read somewhere that was just a promotional shot never intended to be in the movie.

no!!!!

 

[DyeLorean]

No way Avengers 2 makes more than the first one.....

They need to introduce something new to the table. Like, let's say Ant Man gets released on 2014, they better have him around in Avengers 2.

 

[Drizzle]

No way Avengers 2 makes more than the first one..... it'll most likely crack a billion but I think 1.5 is the most any MS film is going to make.
But I'd love to be wrong

More often than not, sequels to blockbusters do end up outgrossing their predecessors. Look at the Transformers or Lord of the Rings trilogies.

 

[Superhero 101]

Also the X-men Trilogy and the Soon to Be Dark Knight Trilogy

 

[Tymminator]

But then, look at Star Wars. The sequels that came out in 80 and 83 were loved, but never beat the original.

 

[Xeno]

The Avengers made $17.4 million in its opening week in Japan. Very good news!

 

[TheGuy]

Indeed. Looking at the pools, TA's WW gross has been severely underestimated. Is it gonna reach $1.6bil?

 

[Xeno]

Indeed. Looking at the pools, TA's WW gross has been severely underestimated. Is it gonna reach $1.6bil?

It probably won't make $1.6B. If there is a re-release for awards season it definitely has a chance to reach that goal, but as of now it's nearing the end of its run. A total of $1.5B is very close, however.


Current worldwide total: $1,481,503,000

Source: https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/237209130727792640

Exhibitor Relations
‏@ERCboxoffice
MARVEL'S AVENGERS update: Domestic - $617.6M, Int'l - $863.9M, WW - $1.481.5B

 

[Pond]

But then, look at Star Wars. The sequels that came out in 80 and 83 were loved, but never beat the original.

Yeah, but star wars is a bit of an exception; the first one was such a revolution in terms of specal effects that people had never seen something like it, wich of course was a big draw. By ESB the novelty had worn a bit off.

 

[flickchick85]

More often than not, sequels to blockbusters do end up outgrossing their predecessors.

Especially when the first installment has been so well-received by the general public. It's when they get to #3 that enthusiasm tends to start waning a bit, even if the 2nd installment was great, simply because whatever novelty the franchise had is gone at that point. But after a great 1st installment, the public is usually hungrier than ever for more.

 

[spideymouse]

Yeah, but star wars is a bit of an exception; the first one was such a revolution in terms of specal effects that people had never seen something like it, wich of course was a big draw. By ESB the novelty had worn a bit off.

Can't the same logic work for Avengers 2? Even though TDK was a sequel, I kind of liken Avengers to it (and Star Wars) in terms of the unprecedented buildup of hype, the crazy word of mouth, and all of the record-breaking they did. I then parallel TDKR to TA2 and ESB--where it could really end up where the hype has already hit its peak in the previous movie, and it will have been just as you said--"the novelty had worn a bit off."

 

[Infinity9999x]

More often than not, sequels to blockbusters do end up outgrossing their predecessors. Look at the Transformers or Lord of the Rings trilogies.

But when it comes to sequels of giant pop culture hits the sequels rarely outgross the original. Star wars, spider-man, the dark knight, batman 89, matrix etc. and in a few cases, the sequels are even considered better (empire, sm2) but with movies as big as the ones
mentioned part of the draw was that they were new. The novelty won't be there with avatar 2.

 

[Jordanstine]

It probably won't make $1.6B. If there is a re-release for awards season it definitely has a chance to reach that goal, but as of now it's nearing the end of its run. A total of $1.5B is very close, however.


Current worldwide total: $1,481,503,000

Source: https://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/237209130727792640

According to the list, this doesn't even include Japan's weekend numbers...

 

[Tymminator]

Yeah, but star wars is a bit of an exception; the first one was such a revolution in terms of specal effects that people had never seen something like it, wich of course was a big draw. By ESB the novelty had worn a bit off.

Thats kinda my point.

Some movies just take the world by surprise and their first one is a box office monster. The sequels, even when they are loved may not always match that inital hit the original recieved.

 

[eddy]

According to the list, this doesn't even include Japan's weekend numbers...

Huh?

 

[Pond]

Thats kinda my point.

Not really; Star Wars was a special efects revolutionary movie; its draw was a leap on that front as we have not seen since. ONE year before, Logans Run won a special award for its "advanced" special efects. Logans Run.



Star Wars was not only a movie people loved, it was a sensorial experience, like nothing i have experienced since. No matter how some people throw the whole "this or that is the new star wars", there hasnt been anything like it since. People were not only drawed to it beacuse it was great filmaking; it absolutely changed the way you looked at movies.

But i get what you mean, i just dont agree that Star Wars really fits your arguments shoes. A more fitting example, in my view, that perfectly embodies your point is Rocky; the first one took the world by surprise, big wom and impact, reviews and awards, a film coming from nowhere, and its first sequel stayed mightly behind on the earning side. Even Rocky III and IV got more box office than II. The sixth one did well. The fifth one doesnt exist.

I SAID: IT DOESNT EXIST. THERE IS NO ROCKY V.

GOT IT? t:

 

[Danalys]

the landscapes so different from the time of star wars it's pointless to compare it. the internet can start word spreading for a film months before a films release for more than trailers and magazines could before.

the pirates of the caribbean films seems to go up with each instalment (the last had 3d help) and the harry potter film went up for the end of the franchise but there are still other films in the series above the first. i'd comment on ice age but i don't know the order of those films. kung fu panda and transformers made more in their sequels as well.

a lot of people saw the avengers but a lot more will see it in the next 3 years and since it's a blast might go to the cinema to see the sequel, particularly internationally.

 

[Tymminator]

Not really; Star Wars was a special efects revolutionary movie; its draw was a leap on that front as we have not seen since. ONE year before, Logans Run won a special award for its "advanced" special efects. Logans Run.



Star Wars was not only a movie people loved, it was a sensorial experience, like nothing i have experienced since. No matter how some people throw the whole "this or that is the new star wars", there hasnt been anything like it since. People were not only drawed to it beacuse it was great filmaking; it absolutely changed the way you looked at movies.

But i get what you mean, i just dont agree that Star Wars really fits your arguments shoes. A more fitting example, in my view, that perfectly embodies your point is Rocky; the first one took the world by surprise, big wom and impact, reviews and awards, a film coming from nowhere, and its first sequel stayed mightly behind on the earning side. Even Rocky III and IV got more box office than II. The sixth one did well. The fifth one doesnt exist.

I SAID: IT DOESNT EXIST. THERE IS NO ROCKY V.

GOT IT? t:

I would not use Rocky, cause that was not the point I was saying, and it was not even a point as a simple observation.


I was simply making a point of comparison in my opinion.

Star Wars was a major deal that took everyone by surprise. If I was trying to make ANY point, its that IMO, Avengers did the same thing in a lot of ways. That said, I would not be surprised if the sequels did great, but not as well as the initial movie.

I was not saying they would or would not, hell, I was not even making an argument. I was stating my observation on how I percieved the public took these two movies and my opinion on that.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Opinions are worthless at this point. Recent history suggests that if TA2 is on par with TA, it will make more money. But who knows? Having an opinion either way is just a blind guess. Using Star Wars or Rocky as evidence of anything makes zero sense.

 

[Tymminator]

Opinions are worthless at this point. Recent history suggests that if TA2 is on par with TA, it will make more money. But who knows? Having an opinion either way is just a blind guess. Using Star Wars or Rocky as evidence of anything makes zero sense.

The point I was making is I think that the Avengers hit the world in a way That IMO is rarely seen, it was like an event.

I am not using "as evidence" on how I think it will do, just stating that in my opinion, when movies hit the public in such a way, and you have several people going to see it over and over again, THAT is special and sequels, even if they do very well, just may not have that same impact, as that unique factor of hitting the public in that way doesn't always hit the same way.

For example, for the first film, said person was so enamored with the movie and so thrilled, they saw it 7 times.

Part of this may be, they never saw anything quite like this before.

(IE In 1977, yeah there sci if show and stuff, but NOTHING was quite like Star Wars. It was a big deal for me and others as a kid. Avengers, yeah there were superhero movies, but getting them all together like that for a superhero flick, that just had not been done.)

Now, the sequel comes out, and they go out to see it and love it, but this time around, they may only see it 3 to 4 times. The movie is still a hit, everyone still loves it, but the "unique wow" factor was kinda exclusive to the first film.

Again, this is just opinion, but there is nothing wrong with that. Also Saying it makes zero sense is not true as with anything especially movies one always looks at trends and comparisons. Does it mean you will always be right? Hell no, but you still get an idea how something is gonna go in at least general terms, it's not total Russian roulette.

 

[Exophagy]

The point I was making is I think that the Avengers hit the world in a way That IMO is rarely seen, it was like an event.

I agree with this point. The first film in a franchise introduces us to the world or universe that the characters and story are set within. Any sequel can give us a new story and characters but it can't replicate the awe inspired by being shown a new universe.

It's like how I view Trek, I love Next Gen because it was the first Trek I was exposed to. Not only did it offer great characters and stories, it showed me a new universe that I found appealing.

Watching other Trek franchises did not have the same affect on me because I already knew the universe, so was looking more to the characters and stories.

I'm not suggesting this is a rule, there are probably many examples that contradict what I'm saying but it is worth consideration IMO.

 

[Juicy J]

It's all conjecture at this point; sound arguments could be made for both sides.
But it's just a gut feeling I have. I don't think TA2 will quite match up to the first one in terms of box office figures.
As I said earlier, I'd love to be wrong but I don't think I will be. I don't necessarily think Marvel can capture lightning in a bottle twice, but you never know....

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

It's all conjecture at this point; sound arguments could be made for both sides.
But it's just a gut feeling I have. I don't think TA2 will quite match up to the first one in terms of box office figures.
As I said earlier, I'd love to be wrong but I don't think I will be. I don't necessarily think Marvel can capture lightning in a bottle twice, but you never know....

There will be a lightning bottle captured a second time, especially with a villain as epic as Thanos and a writer/director as competent as Whedon.