Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 6

[Iceman]

It's been an excellent and very well received debut for sure.

 

[Kal_El_90]

No updates this weekend? Jesus

 

[iEquinox]

No updates this weekend? Jesus

Yeah I noticed it too. No Friday estimate and no weekend estimate either :/

 

[ImpulseFan]

Wonder Woman vs. GotG and Hunger Games Comparison update:

Wonder Woman vs. GotG:

Week 8: WW up 586, 000
Week 9: WW up 319, 000
Week 10: WW down 362, 000
Week 11: WW down 383, 000
Week 12: WW up 347, 000
Week 13: WW up 1.770 million
Week 14: WW up 2.059 million
Week 15: WW up 316, 000

Looking ahead to week 16 GotG made .376 million(.293 wknd/.083 wkdy) in 233 theaters.

Wonder Woman has a good shot at matching GotG this next week even with the release coming on Tuesday but then should start to lose ground next week.

Wonder Woman made .921 million this past week(.660 wknd/.261 wkdy).
Wonder Woman will be playing in 659 theaters for week 16.

Wonder Woman vs. Hunger Games:

Week 8: WW up 1.371 million
Week 9: WW up 864, 000
Week 10: WW down 183, 000
Week 11: WW down 247, 000
Week 12: WW down 103, 000
Week 13: WW up 1.075 million
Week 14: WW up 1.790 million
Week 15: WW up 226, 000

Looking ahead to Week 16 Hunger Games made .518 million(.315 wknd/.203 wkdy) in 228 theaters.

Wonder Woman gained last week and has a decent chance to at least match HG this coming week!

If Wonder Woman were to finish its runs the same as GotG or HG the final domestic totals would be:

WW + GotG: 413.744
WW + Hunger Games: 414.706

WW still has a pretty decent lead compared to HG and GotG. It will be interesting how fast things go down once it release on Tuesday...especially with HG and GotG getting their theater bumps in a couple weeks themselves. It is nice to see WW with a sizeable theater lead though.

Time will tell!

 

[Greenlite]

So Diana earned $0 this weekend??!!

 

[iEquinox]

So Diana earned $0 this weekend??!!

Studios sometimes stop giving out estimates for movies late into their runs(and sometimes they stop reporting weekday numbers too). We should get the weekend numbers when actuals come in tomorrow.

 

[Boom]

The film exceeded my expectations on every front. It's been the most pleasant surprise for me this year.

 

[Iceman]

What were the most common expectations of how this would perform domestically before it came out? I can't imagine I would have guessed much more than $250m lol. Definitely not $300m anyway.

 

[scotyb91]

What were the most common expectations of how this would perform domestically before it came out? I can't imagine I would have guessed much more than $250m lol. Definitely not $300m anyway.

When it only made around $11M on its first Monday, I thought it would make around what you predicted. Boy was I wrong haha.

 

[Iceman]

When it only made around $11M on its first Monday, I thought it would make around what you predicted. Boy was I wrong haha.

I was good on the overseas guess but up to $150m wrong on the domestic! t: Fun to be wrong on these things when underpredicting.

 

[iEquinox]

$667,794 for the weekend, a 1.1% increase from last weekend.

The superhero movies went crazy this weekend. Spider-Man only dropped 7% from last weekend, and Wonder Woman even increased by 1%. Despicable Me 3 also dropped less than 10%. Before this weekend not a single movie that was in the top 10 had a sub 10% drop on a non-holiday weekend without an expansion or awards boost to help it all year.

Those holds are not really possible under normal circumstances. Not really sure what caused it, but I'm not complaining :P

 

[Blitzkrieg]

All the new releases ('IT', 'American Assassin', 'mother!') are 'R' rated so the GA had these CBMs (WW and SM:H) & Animations (Leap!, DM3, Emoji Movie) as family-friendly content as an alternative. Annabelle Creation dropped 40% in the face of competition from other 'R' rated features.

 

[iEquinox]

All the new releases ('IT', 'American Assassin', 'mother!') are 'R' rated so the GA had these CBMs (WW and SM:H) & Animations (Leap!, DM3, Emoji Movie) as family-friendly content as an alternative. Annabelle Creation dropped 40% in the face of competition from other 'R' rated features.

That would explain a normal good hold, but not an increase. Especially not after losing nearly a third of its theaters. R rated movies don't make more people go out and watch non R rated movies, right? Last time the only big releases were R rated, the drops for family-friendly movies were reasonably normal. Spider-Man also dropped only 6.1% on Tuesday and 3% on Wednesday, before any of the latest R rated releases even opened. So this can't be the only thing that caused it.

No direct competition does help though. Combined with the hurricane and tons of NFL games last weekend I guess great holds aren't too weird. Wonder Woman's last weekend seems to have been affected a lot more than most movies as well. It had a huge Sunday drop last weekend(-51.6%). It only increased from last weekend on Sunday(not on Friday or Saturday) because it had a normal drop this time. Not sure why Wonder Woman's last Sunday was so deflated. Is Wonder Woman very popular in Florida, or with NFL fans? :P

 

[iEquinox]

It puts it right back on track to reach the 4x multiplier as well. It made more than Jurassic World did on its 2nd weekend after Labor Day. Making as much as JW did after that would get it to $413.8M, and it needs "only" $413.0M for the 4x multiplier. Looks like it has a pretty good shot at making it, even though the DVD/Blu-ray release is tomorrow and that could slightly slow it down.

 

[Greenlite]

I might get this tomorrow!!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Oh hai Scott...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottm...s-down-with-411m-domestic-819m-worldwide/amp/

 

[Micromind]

Box Office: 'Wonder Woman' Wraps Up With $411M Domestic, $819M Worldwide

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2017/09/19/box-office-wonder-woman-winds-down-with-411m-domestic-819m-worldwide/amp/

In many countries, Wonder Woman's Bluray / DVD release date is 2nd October, (don't know about Japan.)

If the movie plays in theaters in Japan till then, it should be able to earn some more but I don't know how much it will earn by then. My guess for the final figures would be around $821 mil. worldwide.

It's disappointing that we were so close to getting that 4x multiplier for the domestic market and we were getting close to Spider-Man's worldwide numbers ($821.7 mil. unadjusted), but maybe not.

 

[Greenlite]

You r being greedy Micromind!

 

[Patchwork Man]

I might get this tomorrow!!

Where are they selling this one at?

 

[Greenlite]

Where are they selling this one at?

I bought it yesterday at JB-HiFi (AUS/NZ)!

 

[Dark Raven]

This is not good

'Wonder Woman' Is One Of The Worst-Performing Superhero Films In Overseas Markets In A Decade

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcai...in-overseas-markets-in-a-decade/#475dc25d4eb8

 

[UncleSam1776]

This is not good

'Wonder Woman' Is One Of The Worst-Performing Superhero Films In Overseas Markets In A Decade

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcai...in-overseas-markets-in-a-decade/#475dc25d4eb8

 

[Blitzkrieg]

What good will a comparison with Spider-Man accomplish?? S-M is still consistently the most recognizable and bankable Superhero in OS markets and it started way back in 2002 with a gigantic origin movie.

Plus Superman, Batman & Spider-Man are way more entrenched in pop-culture and Avengers cracked the code of ginormous numbers in OS territories. MCU has become a well known brand and they'll sell anything and everything very efficiently. MCU has a stronger foothold in Asian markets where WB hasn't done gangbusters numbers yet. They'll hope JL will do the job for them.

The article doesn't make much sense to me because even within the DCEU, WW performed admirably in OS markets. MOS grossed 377 million back in 2013 and WW will finish with an OS total of around 410 million in 2017. Considering the worse ER, WW did very well. Plus WW opened with lower numbers but it has displayed fantastic legs in the foreign markets. At the end of the day Wonder Woman just massively over-performed in the domestic market and in turn it skewed the Domestic-OS ratio. That is all.

 

[iEquinox]

This is not good

'Wonder Woman' Is One Of The Worst-Performing Superhero Films In Overseas Markets In A Decade

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcai...in-overseas-markets-in-a-decade/#475dc25d4eb8

That's a ridiculous article, and that title is a lie.

He also says: "But in one vitally important respect, the picture fell far short of Spider-Man: Homecoming and every other major superhero film released in the past 10 years."
Again, not true. What about Man of Steel, Iron Man 1 and 2, Logan and X-Men: Apocalypse, just to name a few? It beat all of those OS, and they are definitely "major superhero films released in the past 10 years"...

It's also comparing it pretty much only to Spider-Man: Homecoming, and that is not a fair comparison. Spider-Man's huge popularity gives it a big edge in most foreign markets. Homecoming is already the 8th biggest superhero movie of all time OS. He's setting the bar very high.

The foreign share of the worldwide total is lower than usual because it overperformed domestically in a big way. If it made less domestically, this article would not have been written. Like I said from the start:

One thing I've seen brought up in comments on multiple websites is that the share of international gross is lower than average, and people seem to use that to argue that the international numbers are below expectations.

But the smaller than usual international share isn't because it's not meeting expectations internationally. It's because it's exceeding them domestically.

 

[Ozbridge]

This is not good

'Wonder Woman' Is One Of The Worst-Performing Superhero Films In Overseas Markets In A Decade

https://www.forbes.com/sites/robcai...in-overseas-markets-in-a-decade/#475dc25d4eb8

This is absurd, just because WW is one of the movies with lowest % box office coming from oversea market doesn't mean she underperforms overseas, that's simply because the domestic market's performance exceeds all expectations. Such a misleading click-bait article.

I'd even say that 410M overseas market is really good. WW performed well in Latin America, in 2nd biggest market China she's only 10% behind GotG 2. 410M in 2017 is not too far from 440M in 2014, which was what the first GotG made, and that one was considered a global phenomenon.