Wonder Woman Box Office Speculation Thread - Part 6

[ImpulseFan]

Sorry this is later than usual! busy weekend!

Wonder Woman vs. GotG and Hunger Games Comparison update:

Wonder Woman vs. GotG:

Week 8: WW up 586, 000
Week 9: WW up 319, 000
Week 10: WW down 362, 000
Week 11: WW down 383, 000
Week 12: WW up 347, 000
Week 13: WW up 1.770 million
Week 14: WW up 2.059 million
Week 15: WW up 316, 000
Week 16: WW up 514, 000

Looking ahead to week 17 GotG made .823 million(.492 wknd/.331 wkdy) in 324 theaters.

Wonder Woman will surely lose ground this week but it will be interesting to see how much.

Wonder Woman made .890 million this past week(.668 wknd/.222 wkdy).
Wonder Woman will be playing in 355 theaters for week 17.

Wonder Woman vs. Hunger Games:

Week 8: WW up 1.371 million
Week 9: WW up 864, 000
Week 10: WW down 183, 000
Week 11: WW down 247, 000
Week 12: WW down 103, 000
Week 13: WW up 1.075 million
Week 14: WW up 1.790 million
Week 15: WW up 226, 000
Week 16: WW up 372, 000

Looking ahead to Week 17 Hunger Games made .461 million(.280 wknd/.181 wkdy) in 212 theaters.

Wonder Woman should end just shy of that number but not by much.

If Wonder Woman were to finish its runs the same as GotG or HG the final domestic totals would be:

WW + GotG: 414.258
WW + Hunger Games: 415.078

If the goal is still a 4x multiplier and the target 413 it's nice to see a nice buffer here compared to both of these films. I am curious to see how quickly that buffer fades!

What's encouraging is Guardians made about 3 mil more after week 16 and Hunger Games made about 3.5 mil after week 16 and WW only needs 1.5 mil after week 16 to hit 413 so that's alot of ground that can be lost to still meet that goal.

We will see how things look after yet another week!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Will it get there...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/markhu...ll-time-superhero-origin-record/#1f2181a97c3a

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Just checked Thursday's gross and WW's actuals increased (+4%) from Wednesday. Among other movies Baby Driver and Dunkirk managed to increase as well. Anyone know the reason?? I know last Thursday was the Jewish New Year so the tiny drops or slight increases were expected last week but this increment is kinda surprising and cool.

 

[Greenlite]

Mark Hughes said WW on 821.7M, same as Spiderman 2002 now.

 

[iEquinox]

Mark Hughes said WW on 821.7M, same as Spiderman 2002 now.

I don't think it is. Where did he say that?

 

[Greenlite]

I don't think it is. Where did he say that?

In His tweet

 

[iEquinox]

In His tweet

All I can find is him saying it's unclear whether Wonder Woman will get there before it leaves theaters.

 

[iEquinox]

$185,196(-45.3%) for the weekend, domestic total is up to $412,265,643 after 18 weeks.
http://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2017/09/29

4x multiplier looks hard now. Looks like it'll need a boost from Discount theaters to have a real shot at getting there.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So Wonder Woman's 18th weekend yielded 185k (-45.3%) and the domestic total is 412.26 million. Prospects for 413 million domestic (4xOW) seems a bit bleak nao with that drop. Warner Bros. will hafta Four Wall their way to get Wonder Woman over that 4.0 multiplier. Plus there is also the dollar theater bump at the very end. Looks unlikely atm.

 

[kingcharmingman]

Can WW pass Spiderman 2002 for superhero origin worldwide?

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Can WW pass Spider-Man 2002 for superhero origin worldwide?

WW was at 412.26 million at the of the 18th weekend with prospects of raking in another 340k till the end of it's theatrical run. If WB wants, they can rent theater space for some additional time in hopes of some extra cash but that would be too risky as there is no gain at this point of time. Four walling would have made sense if WW was close to a round figure milestone, i.e 400 million or 450 million as it would have helped Warner Bros. to negotiate a better TV rights deal later on.

Jurassic World had 3 strong weekends late in the game (18th, 19th and 20th). I don't see WW having a similar robust run at this point. I don't think the dollar theater/discount theater run will yield a fat deal of cash for Wonder Woman.

WW is also done with it's OS haul. It's Japanese BO has pretty much run it's course and will end up with 11.8 million. But BOM shows 11.3 million after 5 weekends, so it'll be updated. (I hope iEquinox can provide some context here)

So world-wide figures after taking all the potential additions

Domestic - [412.26+0.34] = 412.6 million
OS - [408.5+(11.8-11.3)] = 409 million
World-Wide - [412.6+409] = 821.6 million

So my projected final world-wide total for Wonder Woman is just shy of Spider-Man's 821.7 million. With a slightly better domestic return, WW can can potentially leapfrog Spider-Man '02 but it's still a long shot.

 

[kingcharmingman]

Great analysis!

 

[iEquinox]

OS total has been updated to $408.8M after Thursday(weekday estimates). Worldwide total is now $821,101,232. It'll need just over $600k worldwide to pass Spider-Man(2002). Feel like it will depend on how much longer sticks around in domestic theaters and whether it gets one last discount theater boost or not. Looks like it's going to be a very close call.

We'll have to wait and see if this was the last OS total update from WB as well. WB is not like Disney who update OS totals to the very end, until you get ridiculous weekend totals like this

(GotG2's last OS weekend)

If it gets another OS update and adds $100k or more that would obviously help as well.

Japan numbers for last weekend have already been added to boxofficemojo, but Wonder Woman isn't on the list:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/japan/?yr=2017&wk=39&p=.htm

They probably stopped updating Wonder Woman's Japan numbers weekly. Hope they handle it like BvS where they update with the right number at the end, and not like Suicide Squad, where they just didn't update Japan numbers even though it actually made over $1M more than the $15.6M boxofficemojo has listed(that was its total after its 4th weekend).

 

[Blitzkrieg]

WW's Japanese total at the end of the last weekend (Sept 22-24) was 11.27 million according to BOM and it was 11.4 million according to a Japanese BO expert. Both had the 5th weekend at 254k but with a different final total. Now according to the same BO expert, WW is nao at 11.8 million. I think he's probably right on the money with the actuals. So we might actually be looking at [408.5+(11.8-11.3)]=409 million after the 5th weekend in Japan.

 

[Iceman]

I wonder what the 2nd film can do on the back of this great performance.

 

[iEquinox]

WW's Japanese total at the end of the last weekend (Sept 22-24) was 11.27 million according to BOM and it was 11.4 million according to a Japanese BO expert. Both had the 5th weekend at 254k but with a different final total. Now according to the same BO expert, WW is nao at 11.8 million. I think he's probably right on the money with the actuals. So we might actually be looking at [408.5+(11.8-11.3)]=409 million after the 5th weekend in Japan.

So according to Corpse it added $0.4M after the weekend(actually slighty less but it was rounded up). Wonder Woman was at $408.4M after last weekend(The $408.5M number already included a few weekdays) so it added $0.4M since then. It adds up.

And btw you can add $0.4M to the OS total, but because it is rounded to the nearest $100k, adding "$0.4M" can result in a $0.3M increase anyway. ($408.35M+$0.39M=$408.74M would be shown as $408.4M+$0.4M=$408.7M if you round everything to the nearest $100k for example)

Boxofficemojo's per market totals are unrelated to boxofficemojo's OS totals per movie btw. They can list $11.27M in their per market list, but the foreign total after last weekend should include $11.4M from Japan instead(confusing I know)

The reason boxofficemojo had Wonder Woman at $11.27 in their per market list instead of $11.4M like Corpse is because they didn't use the same exchange rates(they always fluctuate a bit). Corpse's number is the more accurate one in this case. Like I said though, the foreign per market totals boxofficemojo lists might not always be 100% accurate, but their overall OS totals are. They are not directly linked to eachother.

Anyway, $408.8M is currently the official OS total for Wonder Woman.

 

[iEquinox]

Thought I'd leave this post here that explains why boxofficemojo's per market totals can be slightly off at times:

Boxofficemojo doesn't adjust for exchange rates correctly in their per market list. This doesn't affect boxofficemojo's worldwide total, just the totals per market. The overall foreign total is reported by the studio, and that does include the correct numbers per market.

Boxofficemojo takes the latest total gross in local currency and then converts it into dollars using current exchange rates, which isn't the right way to do it. Look at boxofficemojo's China numbers for Wolf Warrior 2 for example, do you see the issue? (look at the "Gross-to-Date" column for the last few weeks)

Box office totals obviously don't really go down, especially when a movie is still making millions. Boxofficemojo doesn't add the amount of dollars it made over the week to its previous total(like they should), but they convert whatever the latest final total in local currency is to dollars using current exchange rates. That can cause errors, like gross going up too much(if exchange rates got better), or even going down(if exchange rates got worse) like it has for Wolf Warrior 2 over the last few weeks.

So if exchange rates change significantly while a movie is still playing, boxofficemojo's per market totals will usually be slightly off. But like I said, their Foreign totals(per movie, not per market) are 100% accurate since the studio calculates those, not boxofficemojo.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

So according to Corpse it added $0.4M after the weekend(actually slighty less but it was rounded up). Wonder Woman was at $408.4M after last weekend(The $408.5M number already included a few weekdays) so it added $0.4M since then. It adds up.

0k, this clears up things a bit. Thanks.

Boxofficemojo's per market totals are unrelated to boxofficemojo's OS totals per movie btw. They can list $11.27M in their per market list, but the foreign total after last weekend should include $11.4M from Japan instead(confusing I know)

I knew about this. But I thought the ER problem was mainly a China thing. I thought other countries were exempt from this issue.

The reason boxofficemojo had Wonder Woman at $11.27 in their per market list instead of $11.4M like Corpse is because they didn't use the same exchange rates(they always fluctuate a bit). Corpse's number is the more accurate one in this case. Like I said though, the foreign per market totals boxofficemojo lists might not always be 100% accurate, but their overall OS totals are. They are not directly linked to each other.

Anyway, $408.8M is currently the official OS total for Wonder Woman.

So BOM is using the current ER so the final total is lower than Corpse's actuals.

The ER graph for Yen-USD does show that at the end of the Sep (22-24) weekend, WW adjusts to just above 11.21 million. So BOM's total does add up and make perfect sense.

Studios use the OD/OW ER to calculate the final total and the ER at the time of release was around 0.00910. So [1.3 billion X 0.0091] = 11.83 million is closer to the actual Japanese total (closer to Corpse's actuals as well) that'll be used by Warner Bros at this point in time.

 

[iEquinox]

I knew about this. But I thought the ER problem was mainly a China thing. I thought other countries were exempt from this issue.

Yeah, it's a thing for every market that reports its numbers in local currency, which means pretty much all markets are affected. China is just the easiest to notice since it's the biggest market.

Studios use the OD/OW ER to calculate the final total

I think it would make more sense if studios use variable exchange rates, but in boxofficemojo's way.

I'll explain what I mean:
Let's use an imaginary currency with symbol M :
Say a movie makes M 100 in week 1, M 100 in week 2 and M 100 in week 3 as well, but exchange rates vary wildly during those weeks. I think it would make sense if the studio calculated these final totals:

Exchange rates:
Week 1: M 1 = $2. It made $200
Week 2: M 1 = $1. It made another $100, total up to $300
Week 3: M 1 = $1.5. It made another $150, total goes up to $450

I think this would make more sense. I mean, the studio can't actually use the OD/OW exchange rates for the money they make during later weeks, so they couldn't actually convert that M 300 into $600 in this scenario, right?

In the case of Wonder Woman's Japan numbers there is pretty much no difference at this time compared to using OW exchange rates. (Using this method would put it at $11.82M after last weekend instead of the $11.83M you get using OW exchange rates.)

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I think it would make more sense if studios use variable exchange rates, but in boxofficemojo's way.

I'll explain what I mean:
Let's use an imaginary currency with symbol M :
Say a movie makes M 100 in week 1, M 100 in week 2 and M 100 in week 3 as well, but exchange rates vary wildly during those weeks. I think it would make sense if the studio calculated these final totals:

Exchange rates:
Week 1: M 1 = $2. It made $200
Week 2: M 1 = $1. It made another $100, total up to $300
Week 3: M 1 = $1.5. It made another $150, total goes up to $450

I think this would make more sense. I mean, the studio can't actually use the OD/OW exchange rates for the money they make during later weeks, so they couldn't actually convert that M 300 into $600 in this scenario, right?

In the case of Wonder Woman's Japan numbers there is pretty much no difference at this time compared to using OW exchange rates. (Using this method would put it at $11.82M after last weekend instead of the $11.83M you get using OW exchange rates.)

Yeah, this is the RIGHT method. Weekly fluctuations of ER are accounted for and it gives a more accurate figure. But I heard that Studios only use the OD/OW exchange rates while calculating the final total. So we're not gonna get the actual/exact gross from BOM or from the studios anyway. Us BO nerds are on our own. We hafta do it all by by ourselves.

 

[iEquinox]

Yeah, this is the RIGHT method. Weekly fluctuations of ER are accounted for and it gives a more accurate figure. But I heard that Studios only use the OD/OW exchange rates while calculating the final total. So we're not gonna get the actual/exact gross from BOM or from the studios anyway. Us BO nerds are on our own. We hafta do it all by by ourselves.

Do you have any sources stating that studios do it that way? I can't really find any sources that say so.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Do you have any sources stating that studios do it that way? I can't really find any sources that say so.

People over at the BOT China thread were discussing the effect of ER and some of the regulars were saying that the final figure on BOM weren't the one that'll be used by the studio and the studios use the ER from the OD to calculate the actuals. Gavin and POTUS, the resident Chinese BO experts didn't rectify or provide some clarification if there was some wrong info floating around. One would think that they'll clear any misconception if there was one among those following the BO there, no?? So I concluded that the OD exchange rates is the one used by studios.

 

[iEquinox]

People over at the BOT China thread were discussing the effect of ER and some of the regulars were saying that the final figure on BOM weren't the one that'll be used by the studio and the studios use the ER from the OD to calculate the actuals. Gavin and POTUS, the resident Chinese BO experts didn't rectify or provide some clarification if there was some wrong info floating around. One would think that they'll clear any misconception if there was one among those following the BO there, no?? So I concluded that the OD exchange rates is the one used by studios.

There was only one user there who said anything about what studios use, and he wasn't sure himself. He said they use "either average ER throughout the run or ER on OD", no one actually said which one it was and no one replied to the post.

I still think it makes more sense if the numbers a studio reports are calculated taking exchange rate fluctuations into account, but I guess we can't really deny or confirm it at this time.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

There was only one user there who said anything about what studios use, and he wasn't sure himself. He said they use "either average ER throughout the run or ER on OD", no one actually said which one it was and no one replied to the post.

I still think it makes more sense if the numbers a studio reports are calculated taking exchange rate fluctuations into account, but I guess we can't really deny or confirm it at this time.

I think there was another user from Ukraine who said that studio's use OD exchange rates. In any case, we'll never know for sure. But the method with weekly ER fluctuations accounted for is the best one.

 

[Electrolyte]

From BOM:
Spider Man is $821,708,551
Wonder Woman is currently at $821,101,232
Difference of $607,319

$608,000 to beat Spidey(Unadjusted)

Hmmm...Crossing fingers