The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[rashad]

It'll do aight.

 

[BigThor]

It'll do aight.

Sure

 

[Micromind]

I think that Avengers will make at least equal to the combined Total of worldwide collections of three Marvel movies, TIH, Thor and Captain America.

(Thor) $449 mil. + (TIH) $263 mil. + (Cap. America) $368 mil. = (Avengers) $1080 mil.

 

[Iceman]

It'll do aight.

Better than 'aight'.

 

[Mysteryman]

What is that, One thousand and Eighty million?

 

[Suzanne78]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/the-avengers-dark-knight-rises-box-office-312398?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

If pre-release tracking is any indication, Joss Whedon's The Avengers could score one of the biggest domestic openings of all time for a suphero pic, if not one of the biggest period.

The first batch of pre-release tracking for the film shows the ensemble extravaganza -- which opens May 4 in North America -- pacing ahead of Warner Bros.' The Dark Knight in most key categories.

A bold mash-up, Avengers stars Robert Downey Jr. as Iron Man, Chris Hemsworth as Thor, Scarlett Johansoon as Black Widow, Chris Evans as Captain America, Mark Ruffalo as The Hulk, Samuel L. Jackson as Nick Fury, Jeremy Renner as Hawkeye and Tim Hiddleston as Loki.

In July 2008, The Dark Knight bowed to $158.4 million OW to become the top opener of all time at the domestic box office (it had the advantage of opening in the heart of summr). The pic held the record until fellow Warner Bros. title Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 debuted to nearly $170 million in July 2011.

Avengers also is tracking better than Lionsgate's box office blockbuster The Hunger Games, which posted a record bow of $152.5 million in March to score the third-best opening of all time behind Deathly Hallows Part 2 and Dark Knight, respectively.
Avengers is appearing to be a sizeable victory for Disney in the wake of box office misfire John Carter earlier this year. The superhero pic is the first Marvel title to be distributed and marketed by the studio since buying up Marvel.

Have I mentioned my body is LITERALLY ready for this movie?

I'm adjusting my predictions to $158 million OW/$340-360 DOM/$900 WW. Unless something goes drastically, horrifically wrong with marketing at this point - i.e. mainstream critics write scathing reviews, one of the stars caught in tawdry sex/murder scandal... etc.

Marvel Studios, you devil you

 

[Vulklin]

I am really interested in how popular it will be with general audience

Iron Man was most popular of the individual films, but not as popular as any of the three spider-man films

So general public must like Spider-Man more than Iron Man, Hulk, Thor or Captain America

IF Marvel had included Spider-Man as one of the Avengers, I think it would have been even more popular, but no point thinking of that now as he is not in it

So will it be around the same figures as Iron Man? Will the added superheros make it more popular? If so HOW MUCH more popular hmm?

Critic reviews might play a factor as well, if they start to rave about it as much as the initial twitter reaction, it could create a snowball effect and get to the billion mark

 

[Mysteryman]

Well, I think Spider -Man was a bit more popular because , all of his animated series over the years .
Crossover appeal.

 

[Mysteryman]

The low end is about 128 Million .
The high end is between 150million+ /Sky's The Limit .

 

[Tony Stark]

I am really interested in how popular it will be with general audience

Iron Man was most popular of the individual films, but not as popular as any of the three spider-man films

So general public must like Spider-Man more than Iron Man, Hulk, Thor or Captain America

IF Marvel had included Spider-Man as one of the Avengers, I think it would have been even more popular, but no point thinking of that now as he is not in it

So will it be around the same figures as Iron Man? Will the added superheros make it more popular? If so HOW MUCH more popular hmm?

Critic reviews might play a factor as well, if they start to rave about it as much as the initial twitter reaction, it could create a snowball effect and get to the billion mark

It's about building an audience. Batman Begins had a fairly modest Box office take, but obviously had good legs, and good word of mouth, to where it brought what TDK did in the second installment.

Iron Man at the time was the second biggest opening for a non sequel (now 3rd thanks to hunger games) but Iron man's cultural awareness was pretty limited. I'm about as big of an IM fan as you can find, and I thought the film would do in the 70's or so opening weekend. Obviously it did much better and had great legs despite going up against Chronicles of Narnia and Indy 4 in the following weeks. If it had the luxury as TDK had of weeks of no competition, I think it would have made 400 million.

Spider-man had built-in name recognition and plus after the tragedy of 9-11, I think the country was ready for a movie like that. About heroism and self sacrifice.

However, Avengers is to the point now it's beyond needing someone like Spider-man in it. In fact I think having Spider-man would be a detraction from what the story is. Spider-man was never an Avenger (although I think he was considered a long standing "reserve"), until the New Avengers came out about 10 years ago.

So really I don't see anything holding back this film. I expect it at minimum to out gross all the other Marvel Studio films, but I really think this could be one for the record books. But there's no predictor on that.

Clearly from reviews that have come out already from folks who considered TDK the gold standard have at least put Avengers in that catagory, if not outright on top.

 

[Rock Sexton]

All I can say is kids are going to make their parents take them to see this movie again ..... and again .... and again ...... They are going to get a TON of repeat viewings from that alone. I can already envision day camp trips by the droves to go see this as an activity.

 

[Raiden]

I am really interested in how popular it will be with general audience

Iron Man was most popular of the individual films, but not as popular as any of the three spider-man films

So general public must like Spider-Man more than Iron Man, Hulk, Thor or Captain America

IF Marvel had included Spider-Man as one of the Avengers, I think it would have been even more popular, but no point thinking of that now as he is not in it

So will it be around the same figures as Iron Man? Will the added superheros make it more popular? If so HOW MUCH more popular hmm?

Critic reviews might play a factor as well, if they start to rave about it as much as the initial twitter reaction, it could create a snowball effect and get to the billion mark

I think Spider-Man could help if he's in the movie, but I think it also helps when they don't have the biggest Marvel superhero in the movie, because it allows a better distribution of screentime for everyone involved. Some people are already convinced that Iron Man has gotten too much attention in this ensemble movie, think what would've happened if Spider-Man is in it, too. Anyway, since Marvel may never get Spidey back unless Sony Pictures files for bankruptcy, this discussion is moot.

 

[Mysteryman]

That is a good point about Batman Begins.
It is still my favorite of the two Nolan films

 

[redfirebird2008]

Iron Man at the time was the second biggest opening for a non sequel (now 3rd thanks to hunger games) but Iron man's cultural awareness was pretty limited. I'm about as big of an IM fan as you can find, and I thought the film would do in the 70's or so opening weekend. Obviously it did much better and had great legs despite going up against Chronicles of Narnia and Indy 4 in the following weeks. If it had the luxury as TDK had of weeks of no competition, I think it would have made 400 million.

An extra $80m? Not likely. Chronicles of Narnia 2 was a flop. It actually made less than Mamma Mia, which came out the same day as TDK. SM1 had stiff competition from a Star Wars movie that was expected to kill Spidey, but the exact opposite happened. Iron Man made what it was going to make. It had strong word of mouth and did very well.

 

[Iceman]

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/ne...-312398?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter



Have I mentioned my body is LITERALLY ready for this movie?

I'm adjusting my predictions to $158 million OW/$340-360 DOM/$900 WW. Unless something goes drastically, horrifically wrong with marketing at this point - i.e. mainstream critics write scathing reviews, one of the stars caught in tawdry sex/murder scandal... etc.

Marvel Studios, you devil you

Thanks for the link.

This film is going to lay the foundations for Marvel's future. Reviews would have to be positive across the board but I still think there is a chance of getting the opening weekend record and if not to finish at least within $5-15m of it. Also if the universal praise so far is to be believed I think it's going to have great legs for a blockbuster especially against the relatively limp looking competition in it's 1st month of release. It should be a contender for most repeat business of the year due to it's 6th film mega-visuals/action payoff.

 

[megalixir]

I've never in my life paid to see a film twice in the theater. I could always wait for the DVD release. I'm about to break that record. Even if a small portion of the GA does the same, who wouldn't normally do so, then this film is likely to out-perform everyone's low-balled estimates.

 

[Iceman]

All I can say is kids are going to make their parents take them to see this movie again ..... and again .... and again ...... They are going to get a TON of repeat viewings from that alone. I can already envision day camp trips by the droves to go see this as an activity.

I meant to ask this before if you don't mind..how kid-friendly is the film? What's the minimum age kid you think should be watching this?

 

[Vulklin]

I rarely go to cinema anymore, i just watch online (sssshhh )

Last film I saw in cinema was Avatar and before that probably Star Wars ROTS

I have become so interested in Avengers that I plan on going to cinema to see it, might even go more than once t:

 

[Weadazoid]

I meant to ask this before if you don't mind..how kid-friendly is the film? What's the minimum age kid you think should be watching this?

awsome question...


I have a 6 year old daughter and when I show her trailers with the Hulk, she really wants to check it out


I have kept her at bay because I feel it will probably be just too intense for her



She is a sweet little girl who was iffy about How to train your dragon even recently .... didn't see it in the theater .... she saw it at a freinds house a year ago


now she is fine with Dragons.... but I got alot of questions a year ago about dragons, if they were 'real' and possibly in her room at night


- she gets that they are make believe - she gets that the HUlk is make believe


I like watching the trailer with her and she recognizes the comercials

 

[Iceman]

awsome question...


I have a 6 year old daughter and when I show her trailers with the Hulk, she really wants to check it out


I have kept her at bay because I feel it will probably be just too intense for her



She is a sweet little girl who was iffy about How to train your dragon even recently .... didn't see it in the theater .... she saw it at a freinds house a year ago


now she is fine with Dragons.... but I got alot of questions a year ago about dragons, if they were 'real' and possibly in her room at night


- she gets that they are make believe - she gets that the HUlk is make believe


I like watching the trailer with her and she recognizes the comercials

Yep, I mean Avengers is obviously going to be more kid friendly than TDKR & Prometheus but the difference between something appropriate for 10 year olds and something good for 6 year olds can be quite big. Every kid brings along their own entourage after all t: and it's a great carrot (or stick if used in reverse) for parents to use in child manipulation!

 

[Raiden]

awsome question...


I have a 6 year old daughter and when I show her trailers with the Hulk, she really wants to check it out


I have kept her at bay because I feel it will probably be just too intense for her



She is a sweet little girl who was iffy about How to train your dragon even recently .... didn't see it in the theater .... she saw it at a freinds house a year ago


now she is fine with Dragons.... but I got alot of questions a year ago about dragons, if they were 'real' and possibly in her room at night


- she gets that they are make believe - she gets that the HUlk is make believe


I like watching the trailer with her and she recognizes the comercials

I'd love to bring my kids to see this movie, but they're still too young. They're still in the Yo Gabba Gabba/Dora the Explorer/Team UmiZoomi stage lol.

 

[megalixir]

There're quite a few intense moments in the film, with death and destruction. And LOTS of fighting. I think this is teen/pre-teen appropriate, but younger than 8 or 9 or so and you'll have to evaluate the maturity of the kid in question, because some WILL want to come out punching stuff. Not much language and no sexy scenes.

 

[Iceman]

There're quite a few intense moments in the film, with death and destruction. And LOTS of fighting. I think this is teen/pre-teen appropriate, but younger than 8 or 9 or so and you'll have to evaluate the maturity of the kid in question, because some WILL want to come out punching stuff. Not much language and no sexy scenes.

Great, thank you.

 

[KangConquers]

$400 M domestic isn't looking impossible, and $1 Billion ww is completely on the table.


After several years of the team's popularity being in the gutter in the 90s, I never thought I'd live to see the day where The Avengers not only surpassed X-Men, but Spider-Man as well as Marvel's flagship franchise.

It's simple math though I guess; Marvel's #2, 4, 5, and 6 most popular characters combined in 1 film.

 

[Chewy]

I meant to ask this before if you don't mind..how kid-friendly is the film? What's the minimum age kid you think should be watching this?

Kids are going to be beside themselves. I can't imagine how I would have felt if I had seen this as a kid

Idk about minimum age, there's a few deaths that might freak them out but if you'd let them watch something like Star Wars or Spider-Man this should be fine