The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[JB-the-Hunter]

I'm wondering why THR only pitted the Avengers numbers against TDK and THG, though....seems like the more "appropriate" showdown would've been to see how those anticipation/awareness numbers stack up against TDKR.

Because TDKR tickets aren't even available yet so how would they even be able to track it?

 

[redfirebird2008]

Because TDKR tickets aren't even available yet so how would they even be able to track it?

That's not really how tracking works. It's more of a survey, which is far from an exact science.

I'm wondering why THR only pitted the Avengers numbers against TDK and THG, though....seems like the more "appropriate" showdown would've been to see how those anticipation/awareness numbers stack up against TDKR. (I don't think they need to run the numbers on TASM, though....the tracking has already shown to be abysmal on all levels.... )

Tracking a movie 3 months ahead of time is extremely unreliable. In fact, TDK was tracking at $100m just a month before it came out, never mind attempting to track it even earlier than that.

 

[Iceman]

I'd rather wait til 2016. You don't want to oversaturate the GA's thirst for these characters. We have 3 straight years of Thor in a movie, which is great for a fan, but I worry about it turning into a Saw franchise.

I would rather they took it slower with the solo films if there was a problem with oversaturation or focused on new characters.

 

[Iceman]

Yeah but is it going to be bigger than The Avengers, in which Chris still has a much bigger role than Liam in THG.

Bigger in action? (I'm only talking about US box office)

Avengers might be the beneficiary of this survey being conducted during its media/marketing surge while other films are still relatively quiet but its still good news.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...rk-knight-fandango-summer-movie-survey-312606

'Avengers' Tops Fandango Survey of Most Anticipated Summer Movies

The Marvel action thriller is tops for men, followed by "Dark Knight Rises." Women pick "Snow White" and "Avengers" as their top choices.

1. “The Avengers” 31%
2. “The Dark Knight Rises” 23%
3. “The Bourne Legacy” 14%
4. “Men in Black 3” 8%
5. “Prometheus” 7%

Women’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1. “Snow White and the Huntsman” 22%
2. “The Avengers” 16%
3. “Men in Black 3” 13%
4. “The Dark Knight Rises” 10%
5. “Dark Shadows” 8%

Glad it's at no.2 for women.

 

[BigThor]

I would rather they took it slower with the solo films if there was a problem with oversaturation or focused on new characters.

Oversaturation or not, I love the fact that we're gonna have three years of Thor as of now.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

I'm wondering why THR only pitted the Avengers numbers against TDK and THG, though...

TDK holds the OW record amongst superhero movies, and is a good yardstick in terms of the "perfect storm" phenomenon. THG is cited I suppose because of its monstrous OW numbers and incredible legs, plus a study of how TA may or may not enroach into its key demographic in order to do even better business.

 

[BigThor]

Bigger in action? (I'm only talking about US box office)

I'm also talking about B.O. numbers, **** all this "opening weekend & domestic" nonsense the only number I care about is the overall gross.

 

[Iceman]

Oversaturation or not, I love the fact that we're gonna have three years of Thor as of now.

No complaining from me either mate! t:

I'm also talking about

Yeah, final gross is where it's at for me too. But with blockbusters that follow usual trends the opening weekend is one of the biggest indicators of final gross. I also think Avengers is going to be breaking these records or coming very close so it will hopefully turn out to be quite relevant.

 

[Tony Stark]

I've been called a couple of times on these surveys and one time they asked to speak to my son about kids movies coming out.

Basically they call up and read a list of movies currently out, or that are soon to come out, and ask you which are you most likely to see. They take a random sampling of a large group of people and then sort by demographics.

they also ask other questions to weight the survey. For example they ask you how many times do you typically go to the theater. Someone who goes only once or twice every 6 months and says they will go see a movie like Avengers in the theaters, that can be a big indicator if the sample size is large enough.

While it's not an exact science, and they can either over-predict or under-predict, they are usually in the ball park.

 

[Raiden]

Avengers might be the beneficiary of this survey being conducted during its media/marketing surge while other films are still relatively quiet but its still good news.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...rk-knight-fandango-summer-movie-survey-312606

'Avengers' Tops Fandango Survey of Most Anticipated Summer Movies

The Marvel action thriller is tops for men, followed by "Dark Knight Rises." Women pick "Snow White" and "Avengers" as their top choices.

1. “The Avengers” 31%
2. “The Dark Knight Rises” 23%
3. “The Bourne Legacy” 14%
4. “Men in Black 3” 8%
5. “Prometheus” 7%

Women’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1. “Snow White and the Huntsman” 22%
2. “The Avengers” 16%
3. “Men in Black 3” 13%
4. “The Dark Knight Rises” 10%
5. “Dark Shadows” 8%

Seeing The Avengers on the top two for both men AND women is a great news, since cross-gender appeal is necessary for a movie to become not just a hit but a phenomenon. It's also nice to see Chris Hemsworth occupying the top spot for both lists as well.

 

[Raiden]

Oversaturation or not, I love the fact that we're gonna have three years of Thor as of now.

I also love to see more Thor, but I'm just concerned that sometimes too much of a good thing may be bad for the character. I hope it won't be the case for Thor, though.

 

[Chewy]

Avengers might be the beneficiary of this survey being conducted during its media/marketing surge while other films are still relatively quiet but its still good news.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/he...rk-knight-fandango-summer-movie-survey-312606

'Avengers' Tops Fandango Survey of Most Anticipated Summer Movies

The Marvel action thriller is tops for men, followed by "Dark Knight Rises." Women pick "Snow White" and "Avengers" as their top choices.

1. “The Avengers” 31%
2. “The Dark Knight Rises” 23%
3. “The Bourne Legacy” 14%
4. “Men in Black 3” 8%
5. “Prometheus” 7%

Women’s Picks for Most Anticipated Summer Movie:
1. “Snow White and the Huntsman” 22%
2. “The Avengers” 16%
3. “Men in Black 3” 13%
4. “The Dark Knight Rises” 10%
5. “Dark Shadows” 8%

It says a lot that TASM can't even muster up 7% of the male vote on a "most anticipated movie" poll

 

[BigThor]

I also love to see more Thor, but I'm just concerned that sometimes too much of a good thing may be bad for the character. I hope it won't be the case for Thor, though.

I don't think it will, keep in mind that Thor's only "one" of the main characters in The Avengers not THE main character.

It's not like he has his own tv show or anything look at how many Batman & Spider-Man tv shows have come out in the last 10 years.

 

[Raiden]

I don't think it will, keep in mind that Thor's only "one" of the main characters in The Avengers not THE main character.

It's not like he has his own tv show or anything look at how many Batman & Spider-Man tv shows have come out in the last 10 years.

I hope you're right, because I do want to see Thor in a trilogy in addition to his appearances in the Avengers' own trilogy. If Thor in the post-TA movies can keep improving the quality and scale of the movies I can see this character eventually reaching the kind of household recognition as IM and Wolverine, and perhaps the Big Three (Superman, Batman, Spider-Man), as well.

 

[BigThor]

I hope you're right, because I do want to see Thor in a trilogy in addition to his appearances in the Avengers' own trilogy. If Thor in the post-TA movies can keep improving the quality and scale of the movies I can see this character eventually reaching the kind of household recognition as IM and Wolverine, and perhaps the Big Three (Superman, Batman, Spider-Man), as well.

I'd be pretty happy with him reaching IM & Wolverine levels of recognition, he'll probably never be as popular as the Big Three though and I'm ok with that.

 

[Vulklin]

my 5 most anticipated movies are

Avengers, Man of Steel, Thor 2, a new Hulk movie and Prometheus

 

[BigThor]

my 5 most anticipated movies are

Avengers, Man of Steel, Thor 2, a new Hulk movie and Prometheus

My list is pretty much the same as this, although I'd replace the Hulk movie with IM3 and I'd add "Pacific Rim" to the list.

 

[Oruku Saki]

I'm as positive this movie is going to break 1billion as I am that Hulk is gonna go after a "Leviathan" as soon as he sees it!

 

[Oruku Saki]

I'm gonna say this movie gets 170 mil opening weekend based on early tracking and the numbers showing the overall awareness of the film. Now, if this movie does as well as I think it will (round 1.1 billion). Then Avengers 2 will break all previous OW and total gross records at that time. I put my stamp of approval on it.

 

[rashad]

It says a lot that TASM can't even muster up 7% of the male vote on a "most anticipated movie" poll

It does indeed.

 

[thalidomide]

I'm going to be a little bit realistic about this but for some reason I don't see this earning a billion dollars, don't get me wrong I really can't wait to see this film but I feel like this will just earn 800 million.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Also rememberTDK, hate to say it because it's so cynical on people, but there were a lot that went to see it that may have not just due to Heath Ledger dying. People are like that. Some form of controversy draws a crowd in.

 

[rashad]

Also rememberTDK, hate to say it because it's so cynical on people, but there were a lot that went to see it that may have not just due to Heath Ledger dying. People are like that. Some form of controversy draws a crowd in.

Sure but those people are in the minority. It wasn't the sole reason.

 

[Ultimatehero]

It was definitely part of it though. Reason why I'm not looking for Avengers to match it just others. That gave TDK a push, a push we don't have. Also one TDKR doesn't have, look where audience is on that chart. If it was solely TDK, it would be much higher.

 

[Vulklin]

It says a lot that TASM can't even muster up 7% of the male vote on a "most anticipated movie" poll

I loved the Spider-Man trilogy including the third.

I don't really know why they are rebooting so soon after three massive movies that earned something like 800 million each or so

I was not a fan of the X-Men reboot either, pointless considering it was not even the real first class

So I am not hyped about the new Spider-Man at all, even after watching the trailer, which seems quite dull compared to first 3