The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Ultimatehero]

Exactly. It took a 62% nose dive in it's second weekend of release, compared to only 38% for SM1 and 48% for SM2. If the GA liked SM3 as much as the previous two installemnts it would have probably crossed a billion.

It left a bad taste in peoples mouths. Not like Batman & Robin or X3, but bitter for sure. The franschise need a reboot, a new voice.

I think it says a lot when every blockbuster I searched, the only ones having a percentage in the 40s were the Potter series and with that - they reached 370/380 million +. As said, if the reception was good - there's no reason for it to have not passed SM2 at box office or at least tied it because the interest for sure was there and that's what the percent shows. And there is also, unfortunately beyond a doubt, why the studio thought they needed to re-boot it or else we would have SM4.

 

[Marvel]

I think most think Spider-Man 3 was good but not the greatness that Spider-Man 2 delivered. That doesn't make it a bad film nor unloved.


Spider-Man 3 sold 7.5 million DVD units and the domestic take from the DVD was $125 million all by itself. People don't buy a DVD they don't like. That's not even taking in to effect the sales from the trilogy or Blu-Ray.

$891 million world wide box office is nothing to knock regardless of front end percentages. Sure SM2 elevated expectations and SM3 was an overcrowded film but it gets the thumbs up from most including the jaded critics Rottentomatoes used. It was certified fresh.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I think it says a lot when every blockbuster I searched, the only ones having a percentage in the 40s were the Potter series and with that - they reached 370/380 million +. As said, if the reception was good - there's no reason for it to have not passed SM2 at box office or at least tied it because the interest for sure was there and that's what the percent shows. And there is also, unfortunately beyond a doubt, why the studio thought they needed to re-boot it or else we would have SM4.

Agreed. I don't blame Sony one bit. And if SM3 were recieved by the GA like the first two it would have sailed over $400 m domestic. It realistically would have been the first billion dollar film in the genre.

I think most think Spider-Man 3 was good but not the greatness that Spider-Man 2 delivered. That doesn't make it a bad film nor unloved.

The whole idea is to top the previous film in a series (or realistically in a trilogy). SM3 was a step back. The precipitous drop in weekly percentages as well as audience/fan reactions afterwards illustrated this.

Spider-Man 3 sold 7.5 million DVD units and the domestic take from the DVD was $125 million all by itself. People don't buy a DVD they don't like. That's not even taking in to effect the sales from the trilogy or Blu-Ray.

If it were good or great, it would have sold more. People buy bad/disappointing DVD's all the time. Spider-Man is extremely popular so there are reasons outside of the films quality why people would buy the DVD. Completing a collection is the obvious one.

$891 million world wide box office is nothing to knock regardless of front end percentages. Sure SM2 elevated expectations and SM3 was an overcrowded film but it gets the thumbs up from most including the jaded critics Rottentomatoes used. It was certified fresh.

Not in comparison to the previous films. $891 m is surely nothing to sneeze at. But it's also a reminder of what could have been truly special if the filmmakers didn't drop the ball.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I think most think Spider-Man 3 was good but not the greatness that Spider-Man 2 delivered. That doesn't make it a bad film nor unloved.


Spider-Man 3 sold 7.5 million DVD units and the domestic take from the DVD was $125 million all by itself. People don't buy a DVD they don't like. That's not even taking in to effect the sales from the trilogy or Blu-Ray.

$891 million world wide box office is nothing to knock regardless of front end percentages. Sure SM2 elevated expectations and SM3 was an overcrowded film but it gets the thumbs up from most including the jaded critics Rottentomatoes used. It was certified fresh.

7.5 million isn't very good considering Pirates 3 from the same year sold 14.5 million, despite making less at the domestic box office than SM3. The first Spider-Man film sold in the neighborhood of 15-20 million units. SM2 wasn't too far behind that, so there was a big dropoff for SM3.

 

[jmc]

As much as everyone may complain, SM3 is not nearly as hated by the masses as it is within the comic community. It sucks but it is what it is.

 

[Ultimatehero]

I'm actually unsure how to judge DVD numbers, but looking at the same year it looks like Fantastic Four and Live Free or Die Hard didn't do as good. But, also I don't remember the reception to the films being all that great either. While the key blockbusters made 11 million + that year. And I'm seeing a lot of key blockbusters that were well received typically getting 11 million + copies sold. The really well received getting 16 mil. And it seems the average number to 'okay' receptions being in the 6 mil range. Basically examining all these stats, it doesn't look so good. Kinda took me a while since I was stumped on why SM2's number seemed so low (or at least on that one site) along with Cap's/Thor's (just to see more recent) - then I looked at Iron Man's and found... year released meant a world of difference.

 

[Marvel]

Spider-Man 2 DVD Units Sold: 320,235
Spider-Man 3 DVD Units Sold: 7,445,088

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/SPID3-DVD.php

 

[Ultimatehero]

Yeah, that number doesn't make any sense really. Hell, X-Men: Last Stand even beats the number they give Spider-Man 2. And so does Ghost Rider for that matter. Along with Rise of the Silver Surfer. I mean for that to be accurate? SM2 would have to be hated lol.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Spider-Man 2 DVD Units Sold: 320,235
Spider-Man 3 DVD Units Sold: 7,445,088

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/SPID3-DVD.php

You really believe SM2 sold 320,000 units? Seriously? If you believe that, I have oceanfront property in Arizona for sale.

 

[Ultimatehero]

You really believe SM2 sold 320,000 units? Seriously? If you believe that, I have oceanfront property in Arizona for sale.

I mean that number's so obviously wrong believing it is like saying pigs can fly... unless suddenly X3, FF2, and SM3 (all which did leagues worse at box office and are considered disappointing) did a 180 from this box office release and all beat a film that outgrossed them in theaters.

As said that number stumped me until I found more to compare it to to see how really absurd that number is.

 

[marcvader]

Lol. Has to be a typo.

 

[redfirebird2008]

I found a website that linked to a now defunct Hollywood Reporter article which apparently said SM2 sold 6 million in its first day. SM1 sold 10 million in its first week. There is also a report that Transformers 1 sold three times as many units on Day 1 as SM3, despite grossing nearly $20m less at the domestic box office. Bottom line is SM3 wasn't anywhere near as strongly received on DVD as it could have been.

http://enewsi.com/news.php?catid=192&itemid=5211

http://moviemet.com/news/spider-man-3-falls-short-transformers-first

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

I found a website that linked to a now defunct Hollywood Reporter article which apparently said SM2 sold 6 million in its first day. SM1 sold 10 million in its first week. There is also a report that Transformers 1 sold three times as many units on Day 1 as SM3, despite grossing nearly $20m less at the domestic box office. Bottom line is SM3 wasn't anywhere near as strongly received on DVD as it could have been.

http://enewsi.com/news.php?catid=192&itemid=5211

http://moviemet.com/news/spider-man-3-falls-short-transformers-first

Says it all. Reboot time. New vision 3 months away..

 

[redfirebird2008]

Here is where part of The-Numbers.com discrepancy comes from. They didn't start tracking DVD sales until February 2006, which was 15 months after SM2 originally came out on DVD. The website says that any sales before February 12, 2006 are not counted in the total.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Here is where part of The-Numbers.com discrepancy comes from. They didn't start tracking DVD sales until February 2006, which was 15 months after SM2 originally came out on DVD. The website says that any sales before February 12, 2006 are not counted in the total.

Oh now it makes sense lol. This whole time looking at that number I felt there was something weird/creepy going on but I couldn't lay my finger on it. It was just a real head puzzler.

 

[redfirebird2008]

Oh now it makes sense lol. This whole time looking at that number I felt there was something weird/creepy going on but I couldn't lay my finger on it. It was just a real head puzzler.

It's that plus the fact that this particular website is only giving estimates. It doesn't have direct access to the actual numbers because the studios aren't as open about reporting home video sales as they are about reporting box office figures. The-Numbers doesn't even count Blu-ray sales, which these days is a complete joke considering there are some Blu-rays that sell more than their DVD version.

I remember when Inception came out, the Blu-ray had a DVD in the package and the opening week price was something like $17 which was actually CHEAPER than the single disc DVD. When they reported the Blu-ray share for first week sales, 65% of its total sales were on Blu-ray. The movie has sold probably over 10 million units combined, but you wouldn't know it looking at The-Numbers. In the case of SM3, it sold 150,000ish Blu-ray's during its first week. Blu-ray just wasn't that big of a deal in 2007 compared to what it has become in the last 5 years. I bet it has sold 500,000 or less during its entire run on Blu-ray, not including the trilogy box set. Personally I own SM1/SM2 on both DVD and Blu-ray, but refuse to buy SM3. Waited a long time to be able to purchase those Blu-ray's separately too, because Sony tried to force people into buying SM3 by not offering SM1/SM2 on Blu-ray outside of the box set. Manipulative little bastards, but smart businessmen.

 

[cherokeesam]

Um, I'm a fan that liked SM3 despite it not being as good as the first two and had to keep hearing from A LOT of general audience members whether in college classes or around how much they hated it while I spent my time defending it. So, unsure where exactly general audience liking it is being seen....

Not to mention on IMDB it is the lowest rated Spidey movie and on Rottentomatoes only 50%.

It grossed significantly less than Spider-Man 2. AND 44.9% of it's box office was during it's opening weekend. Also I kept on looking - that's the HIGHEST percent for any superhero movie for it's first weekend ever - even TDK. AND the only films with such a high percent that I've found looking at several blockbusters the past couple of years - it should have made at the very least as much as SM2 if people did like it with that percentage rate. The interest was there then it fell. It declined and to a number less than SM2 despite a better start. How is that showing general audience liking it? If anything stats show the audience being eager due to SM2 pre-release then dropping after seeing it.

SM3's drop-off in Week 3 and 4 has a whole lot to do with a coupla little films called "Shrek the Third" and "POTC : At World's End." Also, despite scoring the lowest of the 3 Raimi Spidey films on the domestic front, it did phenomenally well overseas --- far more so than 1 or 2. Those overseas numbers contributed to Spidey 3 being the top grossing film of the franchise.

So the case still hasn't been made that Spidey 3 was a failure in any sense beyond fanboy rage.

 

[BigThor]

As much as everyone may complain, SM3 is not nearly as hated by the masses as it is within the comic community.

Yep, just like Iron Man 2, X-Men Last Stand, and a host of other movies that are constantly bashed by the CMB community.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Failure? No. Disappointment? I don't see how that's hard to argue with. Also, I might be wrong, but I don't think 'Batman & Robin' is hated as much as fans think it is. It just left a bitter taste in most people's mouths due to not being that good. A failure? No. Not that good? Most positively. Also remember and keep in mind this is coming from someone who defended SM3 back in the day and still enjoy it. I just don't see it as 'successful' on any fronts, mainly due to having to defend liking it to G.A. back in the day. Not to mention I still remember inappropriate laughter at the worst times - first time I've ever seen that response to a superhero film ever outside of Ghost Rider. Not to mention people, not just fans, making fun of Toby's acting. Kinda confused on what "good response" means.

 

[Ultimatehero]

Doubt post.

 

[redfirebird2008]

SM3's drop-off in Week 3 and 4 has a whole lot to do with a coupla little films called "Shrek the Third" and "POTC : At World's End." Also, despite scoring the lowest of the 3 Raimi Spidey films on the domestic front, it did phenomenally well overseas --- far more so than 1 or 2. Those overseas numbers contributed to Spidey 3 being the top grossing film of the franchise.

So the case still hasn't been made that Spidey 3 was a failure in any sense beyond fanboy rage.

It was definitely a huge financial success for Sony, but evidently they weren't happy with the quality of it and apparently they didn't trust Raimi to do a good job on SM4. Why else would they scrap it and start all over when SM3 managed to make more money than either of its predecessors?

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Yeah, disappointment is more the word then failure. The critical reviews, fan reviews, and the DVD sales in comparison to the first two tell the story.

 

[Tony Stark]

It's a disappointment in that I can see the semblance of a great movie within SM3, it failed in it's execution. I mostly blame SM3 on Avi Arad, who had outlived his usefulness to Marvel at that point.

 

[The Morningstar]

Batman and Robin was both a critical AND financial failure was it not?

 

[Chewy]

Batman and Robin was a success in every way, it redefined the genre