The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 3

[MessiahDecoy123]

Do you think the number should be higher? Movie like Twilight and Harry Potter may have a higher percentage of fanbases, but does that turn into receipt?

The number just seems kind of random.

You also have to consider there are different degrees of fandom. Some people are hardcore fans, some are casual fans and others are slight fans.

Should someone who is a slight fan and simply thinks the character and themes are interesting with very little knowledge or background about the material be included?

Why or why not?

If so I'd say a good percentage of the general audience qualify as slight fans of these franchise they support consistently.

 

[Iceman]

I don't think so. 4, 5, 6 times? That just means you really like it.

20+ viewings? Spending over 200 dollars/pounds? That's insane. You could get a top class hooker for an hour for that money

200 dollars for more than 45 hours of enjoyment though. Anyone who's watching it that many times is probably getting their money's worth relative to how much fun they would personally get from other activities. Someone who's that hardcore is getting more fun per second than a regular audience member who enjoys it but doesn't really care too much .

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Does this mean it is going to have the most epic drop in history?

 

[Son of Coul]

20+ viewings? Spending over 200 dollars/pounds? That's insane. You could get a top class hooker for an hour for that money

True, but seeing The Avengers multiple times lasts longer with the same results

 

[chiefchirpa]

Well, my advice to my Marvel film friends is don't count TDKR out just yet. And there's that 3rd "MIB 3" week to look for.

 

[DarthAlani]

Got to love the power of 3-D. The hype and great reviews helped to.

 

[spider-neil]

the fans make up a ridiculously small amount of a movies overall take. movies like spider-man and batman (and now avengers) are successful because of MASS appeal.

as fans we should be grateful they pay us any attention at all because in the grand scheme of things fans are almost irrelavent.

 

[DarthAlani]

Well, my advice to my Marvel film friends is don't count TDKR out just yet. And there's that 3rd "MIB 3" week to look for.

MIB 3 poses zero threat to the Avengers. It will be hard pressed to make $250m domestic.

 

[DyeLorean]

Holy s***!!!!!

 

[chiefchirpa]

The number just seems kind of random.

You also have to consider there are different degrees of fandom. Some people are hardcore fans, some are casual fans and others are slight fans.

Should someone who is a slight fan and simply thinks the character and themes are interesting with very little knowledge or background about the material be included?

Why or why not?

If so I'd say a good percentage of the general audience qualify as slight fans of these franchise they support consistently.

Might not be included. Skin deep fans who watched the movie once or twice = ordinary joes. No difference among them.

 

[Kirmit]

I don't understand, how can they have the weekend figure when the weekend isn't over?

 

[spider-neil]

Well, my advice to my Marvel film friends is don't count TDKR out just yet. And there's that 3rd "MIB 3" week to look for.

MIB 3 is a blu ray rental for me.

 

[chiefchirpa]

Does this mean it is going to have the most epic drop in history?

Are you secretly hoping for it?

Because I simply don't care.

 

[spider-neil]

I don't understand, how can they have the weekend figure when the weekend isn't over?

advance bookings

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Does this mean it is going to have the most epic drop in history?

No.

Movies with fantastic WOM have moderate drops.

TDK dropped only 52% it's second weekend.

 

[Downhere]

Well, my advice to my Marvel film friends is don't count TDKR out just yet. And there's that 3rd "MIB 3" week to look for.

Considering MiB3 is a few weeks away and there isn't much in the way of competition for The Avengers, I think it's going to play well for the next 3 weeks. With a 200+ million opening, a 2.5x multiplier is probably the floor so 500+ million domestically looks likely.

 

[ElMariachi]

Wow! These figures are absolutely insane. More than the total domestic run of Thor in a single weekend.

 

[Kirmit]

advance bookings

Ah, so the actual figure for the weekend will be even more.

 

[spider-neil]

Got to love the power of 3-D. The hype and great reviews helped to.

that's what avengers has going for it that TDKR doesn't.
when TDKR is making $10 per ticket, ASM/avengers will be making $13 per ticket. it adds up.

 

[DarthAlani]

As a follower of BO, I have to admit I did not see 200m OW coming. This film is now poised to beat TDK and could beats its adjusted total also.

This is nothing short of amazing. And lol at the people who think comic films are dying.

 

[LostSon88]

my record is 7 times (the matrix)

I saw the midnight show with a group of friends. Watched it again with my family yesterday. Today, another group of friends invited me to go see it again.

I might have to pass on tonight though. I mean I do plan on seeing it one more time before its run is up but....I think I need to space it out a bit.

3 viewings in 4 days is a lil much for me. Run the risk of getting a lil jaded...

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Well, my advice to my Marvel film friends is don't count TDKR out just yet. And there's that 3rd "MIB 3" week to look for.

By the time MIB3 comes out, Avengers would have made well over a billion worldwide.

 

[spider-neil]

Ah, so the actual figure for the weekend will be even more.

no, the figures will be fairly accurate. the amount of people that turn up and buy tickets is very small and factored into the estimates.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Are you secretly hoping for it?

Because I simply don't care.

Not sure if serious....

No.

Movies with fantastic WOM have moderate drops.

TDK dropped only 52% it's second weekend.

I don't know, HP and The Hunger Games both had great WoM and even they got hit in their second weekends. I am genuinely curious about how front loaded this going to be.

 

[spider-neil]

I saw the midnight show with a group of friends. Watched it again with my family yesterday. Today, another group of friends invited me to go see it again.

I might have to pass on tonight though. I mean I do plan on seeing it one more time before its run is up but....I think I need to space it out a bit.

3 viewings in 4 days is a lil much for me. Run the risk of getting a lil jaded...

I'm waiting for a bit before I see avengers one last time before it leaves the theatres and then it's the long wait for the blu ray