The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[TheGambler]

Avengers is only Disney's 4th highest BO of all time? Which 3 movies have topped it? I'm guessing Toy Story 3 is one, what are the other 2?

No, it's Disney's #1 highest-grossing film of all time.

Seeing Avengers overperform for the last 3 weeks has been absolutely incredible. Stunning numbers and great WOM.

 

[Superhero 101]

Ihttp://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/
hope Avengers can make around 45 million this weekend it'd be awesome if it can even make 50.

 

[Octavias]

Based on the TDK range and the numbers above, TA should have pulled down around$3550000 Thursday- that would bring its total around 475million and move into #4 all time. then: Fri-$9240000 Sat-$15120000 Sun-$10530000 for a Weekend Total of $34900000 which would put it around 510 million total, only 23 from TDK in just 24 days. Over weeks 5-10 TDK pulled in 80 million dollars, assuming the 114% number holds true that could be as much as 91 million over that time for TA. Around week 11 or 12 the numbers should drop to around 1 million a week for some time. TDK spent months in theaters, Im not sure how long they will run TA but it should safely cross the 600 million line regardless

So again, based on the TDK model The avengers seems to be picking up some steam this weekend instead of falling at the same rate. My projections were for 35 million this weekend. there are projections it will hit 40 to 45 out right now. It did about a million better on thursday than expected, and a half a million better than expected on friday. All it would have to do to hit 500 m,illion right now is trend as expected today and hit 15 million, however 18 to 20 isnt out of the question. thats hitting 500 million domestically a whopping 9 days quicker than AVATAR and 22 days quicker than TDK... that is truely amazing. Absolute proof that TDK wasnt a fluke and, if done right, comic book movies can be the uber behemoths in this medium.

 

[magicangel1989]

i have a question. even if the Avengers gets pushed out of its number one spot by MIB3, will it still be able to make $500 million domestically?

 

[Superhero 101]

yeah it should make around 510 by the end of the weekend and should pass TDK domestic next weekend

 

[Joeyjojo72]

It will make 500 domestic by tonight. It should surpass TDK by the end of next week.

 

[Danalys]

3rd domestically is guaranteed, third world wide is guaranteed, but third intentionally i'm not sure about.

 

[Raiden]

3rd domestically is guaranteed, third world wide is guaranteed, but third intentionally i'm not sure about.

Its only Avengers' first month of release, and I'm sure it will have enough legs to make #3 foreign possible. Besides, Japan still doesn't have TA and won't have it until August, so the best is yet to come.

 

[Danalys]

it's it's fourth week internationally and only 5% of the international market hasn't been released into. the last harry potter did real big business internationally, and i think it maybe avengers 2 that passes it rather than avengers 1. avengers 2 will also get the biggest midnight crowd.

also

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Are there any Intl weekend estimates?

 

[KangConquers]

it's it's fourth week internationally and only 5% of the international market hasn't been released into. the last harry potter did real big business internationally, and i think it maybe avengers 2 that passes it rather than avengers 1. avengers 2 will also get the biggest midnight crowd.

also

Yeah. I see Avengers stopping $100 M short of Potter's international gross.

 

[KangConquers]

Consider the fact that Iron Man and Thor outgrossed Wolverine (an undisputed A-Lister) and that Cap roughly equaled him in gross, combined with the fact that The Avengers itself outgrossed all 3 films from the original X-Trilogy combined, is it safe to call the Big 4 Avengers A-List superheroes, with worldwide recognition now?

 

[Superhero 101]

Are there any Intl weekend estimates?

I'd say about 40 or 30

 

[The Ironstar]

Fortunately for Disney, I think the success of The Avengers (which is quite unprecedented since it becomes Disney's highest-grossed movie of all time) has already covered the stink of John Carter's failure. There's a poster over a the CHUD forum that had this to say about it:





If this turns out to be true, then TA's number is actually not that far away from MIB3's, and that is extremely impressive for a movie on its 4th week of release.

I wonder if any of the main actors/tress received any TY gifts?

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Consider the fact that Iron Man and Thor outgrossed Wolverine (an undisputed A-Lister) and that Cap roughly equaled him in gross, combined with the fact that The Avengers itself outgrossed all 3 films from the original X-Trilogy combined, is it safe to call the Big 4 Avengers A-List superheroes, with worldwide recognition now?

Yep. At this point, even Loki and Nick Fury could be considered A-listers now.

 

[KangConquers]

Yep. At this point, even Loki and Nick Fury could be considered A-listers now.

and maybe even Black Widow...okay maybe I'm pushing it, but these characters and this brand has been elevated to the top of comicdom.

 

[Raiden]

and maybe even Black Widow...okay maybe I'm pushing it, but these characters and this brand has been elevated to the top of comicdom.

Yeah, I think it is an amazing achievement. Marvel had to take a team of (arguably) B-list superheroes together to make it work, and they turn out to be Disney's highest-grossed movie of all time and in position to be the #3 movie of all time in the box office, if they maintain current pace. It'd be like asking WB to make a team of superheroes without Superman and/or Batman; it's not an easy feat to pull off. And now with TA's success, Marvel has introduced more characters in public's consciousness and improved their brand in the process. That's why movies are held in such high regard, because of the way they influence pop culture.

 

[Flemm]

and maybe even Black Widow...okay maybe I'm pushing it, but these characters and this brand has been elevated to the top of comicdom.

It will be interesting to see how Thor 2 and Cap 2 do at the box office, with that in mind. But anyway, yeah, there's no way that Avengers 2 isn't one of the most anticipated films ever, I think. If the solo movies between now and then are mostly really good, then anticipation could be off the charts.

 

[Drizzle]

It will be interesting to see how Thor 2 and Cap 2 do at the box office, with that in mind. But anyway, yeah, there's no way that Avengers 2 isn't one of the most anticipated films ever, I think. If the solo movies between now and then are mostly really good, then anticipation could be off the charts.

I think that The Avengers will greatly boost box office results for Cap 2 and Thor 2, especially the latter. Everyone will want to see what happens next for Loki.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

I'm actually amazed at Loki's popularity...especially amongst females...

Guess it's true what they said about women and bad guys...

 

[Xeno]

I wonder if any of the main actors/tress received any TY gifts?

If Marvel is still giving out Bentleys the way they did when Iron Man hit big, that's going to dip into the profits.

Yep. At this point, even Loki and Nick Fury could be considered A-listers now.

Sam Jackson gets cheers at the local theater when he shows up on screen in Fury's eye-patch. Loki is one of the most popular characters on the Internet in general (and Tumblr in particular). The whole cast of characters has shot up to the forefront of global popular culture.

 

[Flemm]

What Marvel studios has going on here is unique, so much so that I'm not only interested in the whole thing as a fan of the characters, but also just curious to see how it will play out.

There are so many things they can do with this shared universe that no other franchise can really do. The solo films and the crossovers build hype and generate interest for each other. They can introduce new characters in either type of film, then spin them off into solo franchises, or give them a bigger role in the next crossover (Hawkeye/Black Widow). If a solo film doesn't work, they can potentially "rehabilitate" or reset that franchise via the crossover (which is basically what happened with Hulk).

Disney execs must really be drooling all over themselves right now.

 

[spider-neil]

As a group The Avengers are Marvel's top dogs as individuals it's still Spidey (imho).

2.5b for 3 movies (Raimi trilogy). As comparison, TDKR has to make over a billion to become the highest grossing superhero trilogy.

 

[Raiden]

What Marvel studios has going on here is unique, so much so that I'm not only interested in the whole thing as a fan of the characters, but also just curious to see how it will play out.

There are so many things they can do with this shared universe that no other franchise can really do. The solo films and the crossovers build hype and generate interest for each other. They can introduce new characters in either type of film, then spin them off into solo franchises, or give them a bigger role in the next crossover (Hawkeye/Black Widow). If a solo film doesn't work, they can potentially "rehabilitate" or reset that franchise via the crossover (which is basically what happened with Hulk).

Disney execs must really be drooling all over themselves right now.

I see The Avengers as the rising tide that will lift all the boats from MCU. Now the audience everywhere have seen and love this huge superhero team-up movie, Marvel can keep building upon its success with solo movies, and spin-off more if they do their research and found out that there's a great demand for certain character (such as Hulk). I think both Hawkeye and BW have alot of potential as well, but having both becoming supporting characters in Cap 2 will be a wiser move because it can help develop them further, and after TA2 I think Marvel might seriously consider making a movie for both together or separate. By then these two should become like household names and that kind of recognition can help justify the decision to spin them off to Disney.

 

[TheVileOne]

People once again overestimate big Willy as MIB3 is crapping out this weekend. Another over-expensive behemoth no one wanted to see.

Paying out the wazoo for this flick was a huge mistake considering the second movie was already showing franchise fatigue and underperformed ten years ago.