The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[The Morningstar]

How do the mid week numbers compare for Avengers and TDK? Surely Avengers is lower due to the kids still being in school?

 

[Liam_H]

They are but TA has such greater weekend numbers that it easily makes up for it and then some.

People once again overestimate big Willy as MIB3 is crapping out this weekend. Another over-expensive behemoth no one wanted to see.

Paying out the wazoo for this flick was a huge mistake considering the second movie was already showing franchise fatigue and underperformed ten years ago.

Yea the budget on this movie is ridiculous. But its opening is on par with predictions, also MIB2 underperformed cause it just sucked.

 

[rashad]

How do the mid week numbers compare for Avengers and TDK? Surely Avengers is lower due to the kids still being in school?

http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=topsuperhero.htm

 

[Danalys]

all but two movies would change places with the avengers if they could. it might be the biggest earner for a studio ever because of how box office tends towards earning for the theatre over time. i think some disney execs might die from happiness.

 

[Octavias]

I dont think this needs to turn into a TDK vs Avengers thread. Yes, the boxoffice trends for the two movies are very simular and yes there is ample reason to think many, if not all of the people seeing TDK are in the theaters seeing TA. There are other factors in play, TA is a may release, while TDK was a summertime deal. TDK wasnt released in 3d and was several years back so slight inflation may play a role. The one big difference that may be at play is TDK was a lot darker, so it may have tapped or chased off a segment of moviegoers or at least a segement of return moviegoers. Heath Ledgers death definately added to the pull for certain fans to turn out for TDK, but TA's boxoffice and word of mouth will pull those same type into theaters too.

TDKR will be a better comparison against TA since the ledger pull wont be there and the movies will be released in the same year. Who knows, perhaps TDKR and ASM will both surpass TA at the BO.... hard to say until we can judge the product.

 

[Octavias]

Also my 35 million estimate is going to hold up for the three day, more or less. Its tracking just over my estimates, and by all accounts it passed the 500 million dollar mark on saturday... in 23 days... half the time TDK needed to get there and 2/3rds of the time Avatar did. Now it is just a race to 600 million. My initial projection is it peters out at 607, and until it deviates significantly from its pace vs TDK I am sticking to it. Last week was the first time it started showing some leveling out on the weekdays vs TDK and so far saturday and sunday looked a little ahead of where it ought to be for weekend numbers, though it was a holiday weekend.

 

[sgaana]

Went to see Avengers again last night -- had a couple of friends who wanted to see it for a 2nd time, while for another friend and I, it was our 4th.

We ended up at a big multiplex outside of Boston. It was on 2 screens there -- one for 2D and one for 3D; we went to the 2D one. (In contrast, MIB3 was on 3 screens, and at least one had Battleship, etc.)

They put the 2D showings in one of their largest theaters... and it was 95% full. We ended up having to get seats way off on the side, and as we waited for the movie to start, people just kept coming in. I really never expected that I would go to see this movie in its 4th week, and still get an almost sell-out crowd that was still energized enough to react to the movie. The reactions weren't AS loud as opening night, but still loud.

We had a young woman in front of us who'd brought her mother and father to see it. The daughter was doing victory arms every time the Hulk did something awesome \o/, and the mother was just adorable, gasping in all the right places.

I'm really, really curious to see how both MIB3 and Avengers does after this weekend, if Avengers is still pulling that kind of business.

 

[darthmagic]

#Avengers #2 w/ solid $37M 3day wknd down only 34%. Smashed $500M SAT in record 23 days beating Avatar's 32.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice Marvel's mightiest swooped up $36.9M for the 3-Day & $47.1M for the extended holiday. Through Monday, THE AVENGERS will have amassed $523M.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya $26.3M intl wknd for #Avengers. Thru SUN, $781.6M intl & $1.295B ww. Close to passing Potter8 for #3 alltime global.

 

[DyeLorean]

"THE AVENGERS update (thru Sunday): Domestic - $513M, Int'l - $781M, Worldwide - $1.295B."

 

[TheVileOne]

They are but TA has such greater weekend numbers that it easily makes up for it and then some.



Yea the budget on this movie is ridiculous. But its opening is on par with predictions, also MIB2 underperformed cause it just sucked.

MIB3 also sucked.

 

[Comicbookguy339]

So it's gonna beat both TDK and HP8 real soon.

 

[Raiden]

#Avengers #2 w/ solid $37M 3day wknd down only 34%. Smashed $500M SAT in record 23 days beating Avatar's 32.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice Marvel's mightiest swooped up $36.9M for the 3-Day & $47.1M for the extended holiday. Through Monday, THE AVENGERS will have amassed $523M.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya $26.3M intl wknd for #Avengers. Thru SUN, $781.6M intl & $1.295B ww. Close to passing Potter8 for #3 alltime global.

Down only 34% and crosses 500 mil this weekend? Even if TA comes in second it is still a great weekend for the movie. I think TA also grosses more in its 4th week than JC did in its first, right?

 

[danoyse]

Just a reminder that discussion beyond potential box office for TDKR on this thread is not permitted.

There's a warning at the top of this forum about the consequences for starting any kind of TDKR vs. Avengers nonsense here or on the Batman forums, it would be wise to heed the warning.

Play nice, kids.

 

[TheVileOne]

$600 million is happening everybody. Do you believe it now? KangConquors?

 

[warhorse78]

Down only 34% and crosses 500 mil this weekend? Even if TA comes in second it is still a great weekend for the movie. I think TA also grosses more in its 4th week than JC did in its first, right?

I can see the headlines now, Avengers crossing that 500 domestic milestone will be the big news. MIB3 opening to number one, eh, it's secondary news.

 

[KangConquers]

$600 million is happening everybody. Do you believe it now? KangConquers?

At this point, I can't imagine them yanking out of theaters before it does.

 

[Raiden]

$600 million is happening everybody. Do you believe it now? KangConquors?

I think it will take no more than 3 weeks before TA crosses 600 million imo.

 

[Xeno]

Down only 34% and crosses 500 mil this weekend? Even if TA comes in second it is still a great weekend for the movie. I think TA also grosses more in its 4th week than JC did in its first, right?

The Avengers will gross more in its fourth weekend than John Carter, Dark Shadows and Battleship made in their OWs. If it stays in theaters however long Avatar lasted, it's going to do $600 million easily.

 

[jse]

#Avengers #2 w/ solid $37M 3day wknd down only 34%. Smashed $500M SAT in record 23 days beating Avatar's 32.

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice Marvel's mightiest swooped up $36.9M for the 3-Day & $47.1M for the extended holiday. Through Monday, THE AVENGERS will have amassed $523M.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya $26.3M intl wknd for #Avengers. Thru SUN, $781.6M intl & $1.295B ww. Close to passing Potter8 for #3 alltime global.

Awesome. Ever since Tuesday it's dailies have been performing around 12% better than my projections . Should overtake TDK as #3 on the all-time domestic list --and #1 domestic all-time highest grossing comicbook movie--on saturday at the latest, maybe even as early as thurs or friday. Should overtake Potter 8 as #3 worldwide around that time as well. Although it looks like Potter's #3 overseas gross ($947M) may be beyond reach . I wasn't sure it could cross $600M domestic but now it's looking like at the LATEST it could get there is exactly the day before TDKR debuts.

 

[Raiden]

Awesome. Ever since Tuesday it's dailies have been performing around 12% better than my projections . Should overtake TDK as #3 on the all-time domestic list --and #1 domestic all-time highest grossing comicbook movie--on saturday at the latest, maybe even as early as thurs or friday. Should overtake Potter 8 as #3 worldwide around that time as well. Although it looks like Potter's #3 overseas gross ($947M) may be beyond reach . I wasn't sure it could cross $600M domestic but now it's looking like at the LATEST it could get there is exactly the day before TDKR debuts.

I'm not going to concede that possibility until TA opens in Japan.

 

[jse]

I'm not going to concede that possibility until TA opens in Japan.

I think this is exactly the type of film that Japan is into (like Spider-Man, except on steroids) so i'm hoping it does exceedingly well there. Avengers took a big hit this weekend overseas tho, but i am still crossing my fingers that it does beat HP's overseas gross. Heck i pegged TA to initially "only" make 750M and hoping it would beat TF3's 770M and its already done that and it's only its 5th weekend overseas. So i'm happy regardless.

 

[Liam_H]

The spectacle factor will fuel TA in Japan.

 

[KangConquers]

I think this is exactly the type of film that Japan is into (like Spider-Man, except on steroids) so i'm hoping it does exceedingly well there. Avengers took a big hit this weekend overseas tho, but i am still crossing my fingers that it does beat HP's overseas gross. Heck i pegged TA to initially "only" make 750M and hoping it would beat TF3's 770M and its already done that and it's only its 5th weekend overseas. So i'm happy regardless.

I'm thinking Avengers will stop shy of $900 M foreign...I hope not though, as it's not going to hit $1.5 B without $900 M INT.

 

[Drizzle]

Well, Men in Black III knocked The Avengers out of the top spot as predicted, but it only made $55 million out of the gate, which is more or less the same as The Avengers made during its third weekend. The Avengers grossed $37 million this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised if it held on to the #2 spot next week as well, with Snow White and the Huntsman taking the #1 spot and MIB 3 falling to third place. Even though it dropped to second place, the fact that The Avengers only grossed $18 million less than MIB 3 in its fourth weekend is pretty damn impressive. I can't remember the last time one movie dominated the whole month of May. Not even Spider-Man (which had to fend off Star Wars), Spider-Man 3 (which had competition from Shrek and Pirates of the Carribean) or Iron Man (Indiana Jones) could accomplish that.

 

[Danalys]

I think this is exactly the type of film that Japan is into (like Spider-Man, except on steroids) so i'm hoping it does exceedingly well there. Avengers took a big hit this weekend overseas tho, but i am still crossing my fingers that it does beat HP's overseas gross. Heck i pegged TA to initially "only" make 750M and hoping it would beat TF3's 770M and its already done that and it's only its 5th weekend overseas. So i'm happy regardless.

i would have thought they'd love the ironman films but spidey trounced them there. but the avengers is such a crowd pleaser i wouldn't expect japan to take to it that differently than the rest of the world.

like i said earlier i'm not sure of it beating HP8's international but it is possible. it'd be nice for the top 3 films to have dominated domestically and overseas. euro 2012 might make the difference between it passing that mark or not.