The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[jse]

As it relates to Japan courtesy of google, some numbers: Spider-Man made $56.2M, adjusted for japanese ticket price inflation (2002, $14; 2012, $24) amounts to 96.3M before 3D surcharge is accounted for. So if Avengers is as well-attended as SM1 back in 2002 (not hard since SM was #5 in Japan's 2002 grossers according to BOM) then $100M could be the floor for the Japanese market. Potter's #3 overseas ranking isn't looking as out of reach as it initially seemed. All this time i thought Nippon would account for around $50M or so.

Edit: the trick is going to be, how much is the late release going to affect it's bottom line? SM1 was released a week late in japan, TA 3 months.

 

[Danalys]

As it relates to Japan courtesy of google, some numbers: Spider-Man made $56.2M, adjusted for japanese ticket price inflation (2002, $14; 2012, $24) amounts to 96.3M before 3D surcharge is accounted for. So if Avengers is as well-attended as SM1 back in 2002 (not hard since SM was #5 in Japan's 2002 grossers according to BOM) then $100M could be the floor for the Japanese market. Potter's #3 overseas ranking isn't looking as out of reach as it initially seemed. All this time i thought Nippon would account for around $50M or so.

Edit: the trick is going to be, how much is the late release going to affect it's bottom line? SM1 was released a week late in japan, TA 3 months.

if i could unnewbie you i would.

 

[mclay18]

$600 million is happening everybody. Do you believe it now? KangConquors?

It's just hard to believe. I knew The Avengers was going to do well, but grossing $500M domestic just seemed unattainable until yesterday. $600M is unreal right now... I need someone to pinch me once it gets there.

And unlike a lot of other summer blockbusters (I'm referring to big budget tentpole films in general), TA deserves every penny. You can't say that about a lot of cinematic junk out there these days.

 

[Superhero 101]

600 million still seems impossible for me i still think it will come short there is tough competition coming next week and the week after that Snow White Prometheus and Madagascar 3 will surely make it tough for Avengers to reach 600

 

[jse]

if i could unnewbie you i would.

lol thanks Danalys

 

[Raiden]

600 million still seems impossible for me i still think it will come short there is tough competition coming next week and the week after that Snow White Prometheus and Madagascar 3 will surely make it tough for Avengers to reach 600

To quote Han Solo, never tell me the odds.

 

[kedrell]

I'm thinking Avengers will stop shy of $900 M foreign...I hope not though, as it's not going to hit $1.5 B without $900 M INT.

I don't think it absolutely needs $900M OS to reach the $1.5B milestone. It could probably still manage it even only with $850M OS. $To me, $600M DOM is locked now and the question is whether it'll have the legs to pass Titanic's re-released unadjusted gross total for the #2 DOM spot of all time. I think it can but it's not anything like a lock yet.

 

[Tymminator]

600 million still seems impossible for me i still think it will come short there is tough competition coming next week and the week after that Snow White Prometheus and Madagascar 3 will surely make it tough for Avengers to reach 600

I thought like that before, but now I'm not so sure. Word of mouth on this flick is still very positive. I know people who want to see it now, who didn't before. Anyone else experience this?

600 mil....I really wanna see it for this movie and now I think we will. This is a great year for being a comic fan.

 

[Lord]

Snow white will surelly make it tough, seems like it may earn as much as the hunger games. It's a shame that The Avengers may not catch Titanic

 

[KangConquers]

Snow white will surelly make it tough, seems like it may earn as much as the hunger games. It's a shame that The Avengers may not catch Titanic

Almost nothing suggests that Snow White is going to be as big as The Hunger Games; most projections show it performing like your average profitable but not stellar Summer Blockbuster (Think Captain America or Planet of the Apes.)

 

[Donut]

I see Snow White starting big. Due to Chris & Charlize & not Bella. Then dropping. Then Prometheus kicks its ash the following week & then with school out by the time Prometheus opens. Most of the Prometheus audience will see it opening weekend. Then it would be cool to see The Avengers pick up some steam again. At least until Brave

 

[magicangel1989]

i am just glad that the Avengers reached $500 million. it does not matter to me now if it reaches $1 billion or not

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Almost nothing suggests that Snow White is going to be as big as The Hunger Games; most projections show it performing like your average profitable but not stellar Summer Blockbuster (Think Captain America or Planet of the Apes.)

It's going to make a killing in Europe if only because of the cast of Dwarves. Not to mention it's the most anticipated movie of the summer among women according to fandango and it's easy to see why. My prediction:
Opening Weekend: $125M
Domestic: $280M
Overseas: $340M
Worldwide: $620M

 

[Liam_H]

Whoa, that's a huge opening weekend.

 

[KangConquers]

It's going to make a killing in Europe if only because of the cast of Dwarves. Not to mention it's the most anticipated movie of the summer among women according to fandango and it's easy to see why. My prediction:
Opening Weekend: $125M
Domestic: $280M
Overseas: $340M
Worldwide: $620M

Boxoffice.com has it opening at $50 M and grossing $140 M total domestic. HSX has it opening at $44 M, and having a 4 week gross of roughly $100 M.

I could see it being another Tin Tin, where European gross kicks it into Hit range, but there's no way this thing is doing $280 M domestic.

 

[Donut]

Also hopefully the combination of The Avengers & Prometheus & Brave. Kills Magic Mike

 

[Liam_H]

That movie is not even suppose to compete with them and one shouldn't prejudge it.

 

[JB-the-Hunter]

Boxoffice.com has it opening at $50 M and grossing $140 M total domestic. HSX has it opening at $44 M, and having a 4 week gross of roughly $100 M.

I could see it being another Tin Tin, where European gross kicks it into Hit range, but there's no way this thing is doing $280 M domestic.

I disagree. Although it all depends on how well it's received, even if it sucks I don't think it's making any less than $200M domestic. Twilight makes more than that and there's probably only 5% men in the audience. So I stand by my prediction, unless it ends up being as bad as Red Riding Hood.

 

[Liam_H]

But Twilight already has a core following behind it with the books and a good chunk of the Twilight audience don't even like Stewart.

 

[KangConquers]

But Twilight already has a core following behind it with the books and a good chunk of the Twilight audience don't even like Stewart.

Bingo! This movie will make low-mid 100s domestic.

 

[Brian Braddock]

i am just glad that the Avengers reached $500 million. it does not matter to me now if it reaches $1 billion or not

I'd like to pretty much echo these sentiments; I mean, true, the better it does the more awesome it is and all but I'm just glad the movie is a bonafide hit, well-received by most and it guaratees that we'll see more Avengers.

 

[Mysteryman]

I see Snow White starting big. Due to Chris & Charlize & not Bella. Then dropping. Then Prometheus kicks its ash the following week & then with school out by the time Prometheus opens. Most of the Prometheus audience will see it opening weekend. Then it would be cool to see The Avengers pick up some steam again. At least until Brave

Thats Chris Charlize and Kristen.
You can use her name.
Its not like the first two are real people and the third is a fictional character.

 

[Mysteryman]

It's going to make a killing in Europe if only because of the cast of Dwarves. Not to mention it's the most anticipated movie of the summer among women according to fandango and it's easy to see why. My prediction:
Opening Weekend: $125M
Domestic: $280M
Overseas: $340M
Worldwide: $620M

I hope this happens .

 

[Mysteryman]

That movie is not even suppose to compete with them and one shouldn't prejudge it.

Agreed.

 

[Kalonthar]

MIB3 also sucked.

I wouldn't call 68% RT, 58 Metacritic and B+ Cinemascore sucking. Not exactly an award winning film or anything, but it seems to be doing fine among audiences and critics in that regard. At least when it comes to the box office, there are way worse films the Avengers could have been supplanted at the top of the box office weekend by. Of course, I agree with what has been said that I think it drops behind Avengers next weekend.