The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Tony Stark]

I said this before a couple of pages ago. Avengers is a film that got some 3D boost in the first few weeks, and that boost will taper off in the coming weeks. Avatar is a film that had 3D boost pretty much all the way through it's release. Avengers is nice to see in 3D, Avatar was "MUST SEE" in 3D.

 

[Iceman]

$400m yeehahh!! t: $500m won't be far away. By the end of the weekend after next hopefully.

 

[KangConquers]

$260 M until it beats Deathly Hallows, Part 2. God, I hope it can!

 

[Superhero 101]

i hope so but i am really afraid it will come a little short

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Be scared. be VERY ascared...

 

[Iceman]

I put in the other thread that Battleship did worse at midnight than Dark Shadows & John Carter t:

 

[Iceman]

i hope so but i am really afraid it will come a little short

Short of $500m by the end of the weekend ending 27th or short of DH2 worldwide?

 

[KangConquers]

I think he means DH2 WW. It's tough because Deathly Hallows performed so well internationally; I see Avengers topping out at $800 M Foreign.

 

[Iceman]

I think he means DH2 WW. It's tough because Deathly Hallows performed so well internationally; I see Avengers topping out at $800 M Foreign.

Even if it did top out at $800m overseas, it would then need more than $528.1m US to get there.. which I think is likely to happen.

 

[Liam_H]

It will top HP7.2 because it has a minimum of at least $150 million left in domestic to add. The rest will come from overseas.

 

[Donut]

I put in the other thread that Battleship did worse at midnight than Dark Shadows & John Carter t:

Justice on Battleship. Opening a movie a month ahead in any market. Will only help piracy. Not delay it. Anyone that really wanted to see it. Either downloaded it online. Or just paid for a DVD bootleg

 

[YoMaMa84]

It's only been in the theater for only 13 days now....and it's already at $400 mill domestically. You guys seem to forget that it'll probably be in the theaters for about another 7-15 weeks, plus Memorial Weekend is coming up. Based on how it's doing. I think it'll easily pass HP7 worldwide and The Dark Knight domestically.

 

[Tony Stark]

At a minimum Avengers will end up at 1.5 B.

 

[marcvader]

It'll pass TDK just after Memorial weekend.

 

[Raiden]

Even if it did top out at $800m overseas, it would then need more than $528.1m US to get there.. which I think is likely to happen.

I think TA will eventually get to $550 mil domestically before it starts to gradually being phase out of the theatre, and MIB3 will probably affect it since its theatre count will be reduced by the release of that movie. However, the WOM for TA still remains strong, and it has incredible legs, so I think it will gross $1.5 billion WW in the end.

 

[Fenrir]

As we saw with Dark Shadows, having IMAX screens booked and keeping them booked are two different things. The theater chains will dump one film in favor of another that can draw an audience better. At the very least, they can split the showtimes to accommodate a preferred film. WB has already been in that position with DS and would likely be forced into another compromise if the IMAX exhibitors asked for one.

The only difference is that TDKR is not just WB and Nolan's baby, but the IMAX corporation's as well. How well TDKR does will decide the future of the IMAX format in Hollywood, and the company is developing a special rail system specifically for TDKR so that IMAX theatres with film projection can show the film the way it was intended while also allowing the flexibility to effortlessly switch back and forth between the digital and film projection systems. IMAX needs TDKR to do well if they want to expand their place in the industry. Also, Dark Shadows wasn't shot in the IMAX format and it wasn't an action spectacle that deserved to be seen on an IMAX screen either. TDKR on the other hand has over an hour of IMAX footage and has often been referred to as a "war film". And since there aren't any IMAX releases following (or even before) TDKR until November (Skyfall) that can challenge it for the number of IMAX showings, I don't foresee any realistic circumstances in which IMAX exhibitors start dropping TDKR.

 

[Xeno]

The IMAX near where I live (Baltimore County, MD) has given The Avengers all but one of its showtimes this weekend, shutting out Battleship completely. (That one other showtime goes to the dreadful Dark Shadows.) This may change next weekend, with MIBIII coming out, but for the next seven days TA is raking in more IMAX cash around these parts. It's also still playing on at least five screens here.


Strong demand like this is why I think that a reissue in late summer could possibly snatch IMAX screens from TDKR. Nothing speaks louder to theater chains than money. If they think they can make more off The Avengers, they'll go for it.

 

[Iceman]

I think TA will eventually get to $550 mil domestically before it starts to gradually being phase out of the theatre, and MIB3 will probably affect it since its theatre count will be reduced by the release of that movie. However, the WOM for TA still remains strong, and it has incredible legs, so I think it will gross $1.5 billion WW in the end.

Yeah, I think $500m is just around the corner after the weekend after this one. $50m more should be easy after that before it starts winding down. Can't believe how quickly it's going to have 500. If it happens like above it'll take 17 days to get to $450m (27 days is the record held by TDK) & 24 days to $500m (record 32 days held by Avatar). It's not just breaking records, it's SMASHing them! t:

 

[Lord]

I hope The Avengers can in least surpass Titanic, that would show how strong the superhero genre is right now, and how a crossover universe can work.

 

[Fenrir]

The IMAX near where I live (Baltimore County, MD) has given The Avengers all but one of its showtimes this weekend, shutting out Battleship completely. (That one other showtime goes to the dreadful Dark Shadows.) This may change next weekend, with MIBIII coming out, but for the next seven days TA is raking in more IMAX cash around these parts. It's also still playing on at least five screens here.

Strong demand like this is why I think that a reissue in late summer could possibly snatch IMAX screens from TDKR. Nothing speaks louder to theater chains than money. If they think they can make more off The Avengers, they'll go for it.

You're seriously suggesting that The Avengers is going to get reintroduced in IMAX in July-October and snatch enough theaters from TDKR that it hampers the latter's IMAX revenue?

 

[Travesty]

I hope The Avengers can in least surpass Titanic, that would show how strong the superhero genre is right now, and how a crossover universe can work.

I think both TA and TDK have shown how strong the superhero genre is. t:

 

[Iceman]

You're seriously suggesting that The Avengers is going to get reintroduced in IMAX in July-October and snatch enough theaters from TDKR that it hampers the latter's IMAX revenue?

Under normal circumstances it would be completely absurd but Avengers hasn't had a proper IMAX run (Dark Shadows had the contract the very next week after it came out) and I think it would only be a possibility when TDKR itself begins losing steam (Septemberish). I was unable to book IMAX at all even though I've been anticipating this for 5 years.

Edit: Also I don't think it'll hamper TDKR's revenue if a couple of screens go to Avengers at that late (& much less competitive) stage.

 

[hafizbat]

How many weeks does a film stay in theaters? So the Avengers has what, 6 weeks left?

 

[Raiden]

Yeah, I think $500m is just around the corner after the weekend after this one. $50m more should be easy after that before it starts winding down. Can't believe how quickly it's going to have 500. If it happens like above it'll take 17 days to get to $450m (27 days is the record held by TDK) & 24 days to $500m (record 32 days held by Avatar). It's not just breaking records, it's SMASHing them! t:

I don't think TA can break Avatar's final box office gross, but if it can smash several of its records along the way it would be great.

 

[Iceman]

How many weeks does a film stay in theaters? So the Avengers has what, 6 weeks left?

As long as there is sufficient demand. The likes of Avatar & Titanic were surely not sheduled to stay around as long as they did but as long as people keep turning up in enough numbers, theatres will save at least one screen for them. On the other hand if something tanks totally it will start losing screens very quickly. IMAX is a bit different as there are exclusivity contracts but regular theatres set shedules but these are continuously amended (after opening week) dependant on which films are bringing in the business.

I don't think TA can break Avatar's final box office gross, but if it can smash several of its records along the way it would be great.

Yeah, Avatar is still a very long way off and Avengers is performing like a regular film with very good holds would do after a $207m opening weekend rather than a crazy creature that follows no trend known to man. t: