The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[KangConquers]

I think you have next to no understanding that many, many films have held on to #1 for 4-5 consecutive weeks, and quite a few have gone on to even more than that (Rocky IV, ET, The Fugitive, On Golden Pond, Ghostbusters, Avatar, Porky's, Fatal Attraction, Back to the Future, Good Morning Vietnam, Crocodile Dundee, Home Alone, Tootsie, Beverly Hills Cop, and Titanic). If Avengers edges out MIB3 for a 4th straight week at #1, that *won't* be a major accomplishment at all, as there are 54 other films that have done *at least* that.

I think you also have next to no understanding that Memorial Day is a huge 3-day holiday in the United States, and will likely see plenty of people going to the theaters. And yes, an ungodly number of them would rather watch Avengers for the umpteenth time than go check out MIB3, Chernobyl Diaries, or Moonrise Kingdom.

Avatar and 20 movies that are over 15 years old. Avatar is an outlier and the game has changed TREMENDOUSLY since the day of Porky's.

If Avengers had the legs of your average top 80s hit, it would make 4 Billion dollars worldwide. The movie industry has changed.

 

[Liam_H]

Forgot what MIB3 was tracking at but it was fairly high and it would have to hugely underperform to not be #1 next week. If Avengers can manage to pull in $40 million still that's a great hold.

 

[marcvader]

Can I play the "next to no understanding game" too?

 

[KangConquers]

Forgot what MIB3 was tracking at but it was fairly high and it would have to hugely underperform to not be #1 next week. If Avengers can manage to pull in $40 million still that's a great hold.

Exactly. Hell, a 30 M would still be a fantastic hold. Anyone who thinks this film, in it's 4th weekend, is going to beat an opening big budget threequel to a near billion dollar grossing franchise, is delusional.

 

[KangConquers]

Can I play the "next to no understanding game" too?

Only if you side with me.

 

[Oruku Saki]

so what's the expected take for this weekend?

 

[Steelsheen]

so i get busy for the past week and i turn around to see Avengers has crossed the billion dollar mark in about... 3 weeks?

so yeah all my conservative estimates is out-da-window!

congratulations all around! so far the best shining moment of 2012!

 

[Oruku Saki]

1.3b was my original guess, but I'm guessing maybe closer to 1.4 now.

 

[PunyGod]

so what's the expected take for this weekend?

$53 mil. Battleship at $38.7

 

[danoyse]

I saw it for the third time today at the 3D/IMAX and the theater was still pretty full, even if the place wasn't the madhouse it was two weeks ago.

 

[cherokeesam]

Can I play the "next to no understanding game" too?

Only if you side with me.

Not fair; he's got the same CATFA avatar as yours.

Exactly. Hell, a 30 M would still be a fantastic hold. Anyone who thinks this film, in it's 4th weekend, is going to beat an opening big budget threequel to a near billion dollar grossing franchise, is delusional.

See, this is why I don't get why you're jumping my ****: I never said Avengers was gonna beat MIB3. In fact, pretty much the opposite: I said it's 90% likely that MIB would knock Avengers off the #1 spot, and that I'd be shocked if it didn't. What I *did* say was that if Avengers makes it *that* far, though, and does the unthinkable, it sure as hell would have the momentum to carry through against SWATH the following weekend as well.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

$53 mil. Battleship at $38.7

Actually, Battleship is expected to make $25 million.

Bomb start even start to begin Battleship.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

I saw it for the third time today at the 3D/IMAX and the theater was still pretty full, even if the place wasn't the madhouse it was two weeks ago.

It's still in IMAX in the city area?

 

[Tony Stark]

Avengers can make 56 if it tracks like IM1 did this same weekend, or 54-55 if it did like Thor. 53 is guaranteed.

 

[KangConquers]

Not fair; he's got the same CATFA avatar as yours.



See, this is why I don't get why you're jumping my ****: I never said Avengers was gonna beat MIB3. In fact, pretty much the opposite: I said it's 90% likely that MIB would knock Avengers off the #1 spot, and that I'd be shocked if it didn't. What I *did* say was that if Avengers makes it *that* far, though, and does the unthinkable, it sure as hell would have the momentum to carry through against SWATH the following weekend as well.

Now that you've gone all puppy dog, I feel bad about my attack.

 

[Vartha]

I'm more curious what the total TICKET sales are at the moment

 

[PunyGod]

I'm more curious what the total TICKET sales are at the moment

Me too but they never release those stats. I wish they did because breaking records based on money is kind of meaningless since price always go up.

 

[Liam_H]

I'm more curious what the total TICKET sales are at the moment

I believe you can get a rough estimate by dividing the total by the average ticket price. There's a degree of uncertainly but it'll get you roughly close.

Going by BOM numbers it would come out to about 52.7 million tickets domestically, so far as of Friday.

 

[Nemesis Prime]

No way do I see TA beating MIB3 even though I am pretty sure that movie will be a disappointment BOwise. TA will still rake in a lot of cash due to a 3 day holiday weekend, but I think it will dip about 30-40% from this weekend. Only chance I see TA beating MIB3 is if there's a huge drop from Friday to Sat due to the terrible WOM.

 

[KangConquers]

Actually, Battleship is expected to make $25 million.

Bomb start even start to begin Battleship.

Wow, that's worse than John Carter.

 

[PokeJ]

You mean Bomb Carter?

 

[BH/HHH]

3rd time on Weds I cannot wait

 

[Vartha]

I believe you can get a rough estimate by dividing the total by the average ticket price. There's a degree of uncertainly but it'll get you roughly close.

Going by BOM numbers it would come out to about 52.7 million tickets domestically, so far as of Friday.

I swear there was a site for that but I can't seem to locate it. THANKS

 

[Webfoot Hero]

Wow, that's worse than John Carter.

While I liked Taylor Kitsch in Friday Night Lights, he just doesn't seem to be able to carry a film. Studios need to stop trying to force people into accepting him as that leading-type actor.

 

[Liam_H]

Its not necessarily Kitsch fault, he just got dealt a bad hand. John Carter had ineffective marketing while audiences scoffed at what Battleship wanted to be and didn't bite.

I mean I argue Worthington can't carry a film but Avatar and Clash of the Titans were successful so he doesn't have that reputation. If they bombed he would be deemed to not fit as a leading man.