The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Tony Stark]

I think that is because a lot of people skipped it at the cinema

True, it's pretty unfortunate that Cap was squeezed into such a bad spot during the summer. I think if it had been released at Christmas, it would have been a 200-250M movie.

2011 was a horrid year for box office, for whatever reason, but Thor and Cap are two movies that deserved to make more than they did. Potter, Thor and Cap were easily the best films of last summer by a long shot.

 

[murdock_matt]

Potter, Thor and Cap were easily the best films of last summer by a long shot.

Same here. I appreciate that Cap (as a film) pretty much falls apart in the second half, but I was so impressed with Thor and with the guts it took to make Cap completely in WWII that I still loved both of those.

 

[Iceman]

Im actually going to buy a blu ray player just for this movie. And maybe a new tv. Is that sad?

No.

(Ill watch other stuff too. I guess)

Won't need to t:

 

[CaptainCraig]

Same here. I appreciate that Cap (as a film) pretty much falls apart in the second half, but I was so impressed with Thor and with the guts it took to make Cap completely in WWII that I still loved both of those.

I just don't see this "it falls apart in the 2nd half" complaint. I see it from time to time and don't get it. I chalk it up to differences in taste to moving the action along I suppose.

 

[TheVileOne]

Just figure if the movie can make say about $525 million after the holiday weekend, why couldn't it get to $600 million off of that.

 

[KangConquers]

Just figure if the movie can make say about $525 million after the holiday weekend, why couldn't it get to $600 million off of that.

$525 at the end of the holiday weekend sounds a little high. I'm thinking $505-510 M.

 

[TheVileOne]

Kang, you got to think it's close to $470 million after today. It will be over $475 million before the holiday weekend. With the three day weekend I think it can make about $45 million maybe.

A lot of people are going to be going to the movies this weekend. Just saying. If people after their BBQ's aren't seeing MIB, they are probably going to see Avengers and not Battleship. Battleship is dead.

 

[thalidomide]

Is there still a possibility that this will make $600?

 

[Quasimod0]

Why do people say that 2011 was a weak year for films? 3 movies in one summer made over a billion dollars. There may only be one this summer.

 

[KangConquers]

Kang, you got to think it's close to $470 million after today. It will be over $475 million before the holiday weekend. With the three day weekend I think it can make about $45 million maybe.

A lot of people are going to be going to the movies this weekend. Just saying. If people after their BBQ's aren't seeing MIB, they are probably going to see Avengers and not Battleship. Battleship is dead.

I'm thinking $45 M is optimistic. We're looking more at $38 M. I see $525 M happening maybe a week from Thursday.

 

[TheVileOne]

It's going to happen Kang if you BELIEVE!

 

[The Ironstar]

I hope y guys like this:

http://gammasquad.uproxx.com/2012/05/thor-delivers-uncomfortable-news-to-a-radio-listener

Also,this may be a little off the subject.Should Thor 2 be more Shakespearean(sp?) in speech?

 

[TheVileOne]

That was amazing.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm thinking $45 M is optimistic. We're looking more at $38 M. I see $525 M happening maybe a week from Thursday.

Kang dude, you need to do the math and look at the trends. $42 is pretty much a guarantee.

IM1 -35% / - 18% for the holiday

IM2 -37% / - 20% for the holiday

Thor -38% / - 21% for the holiday

Therefore you can track Avengers at:

45 M - if it follows IM1
44.5 M - if it follows IM2
43.9 M - if it follows Thor.

 

[KangConquers]

Where are we at total today? Any updates?

 

[PokeJ]

The film currently stands at about 1.2 billion.

 

[Mysteryman]

The fillm made $4,917, 764. yesterday(Tuesday).
Current domestic total is $468,271,215.
Courtesy of Box Office Mojo.

 

[jse]

Should be at 520M +/-2M by end of the holiday wkend . I have it making 3.58M tomorrow but i was 0.86% and 13% short for my projections on Monday and Tues respectively so i hope i'm underpredicting again. Should overtake TDK's domestic gross around the friday after the long wkend. After that it'll be in theaters for probably another 16 or 17 weeks.

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

After that it'll be in theaters for probably another 16 or 17 weeks.

You really think it'll be in theatres that long?

Or maybe you meant 6-7 weeks?

 

[Superhero 101]

Kang dude, you need to do the math and look at the trends. $42 is pretty much a guarantee.

IM1 -35% / - 18% for the holiday

IM2 -37% / - 20% for the holiday

Thor -38% / - 21% for the holiday

Therefore you can track Avengers at:

45 M - if it follows IM1
44.5 M - if it follows IM2
43.9 M - if it follows Thor.

I think it will make around 41 or 42 million this weekend. the lowest i can see it make would be 38

 

[jse]

You really think it'll be in theatres that long?

Or maybe you meant 6-7 weeks?

Avengers is in the middle of only its 3rd week. IM (Marvel/Paramount), POTC: DMC (Disney), Toy Story 3 (Pixar/Disney) were in theaters at least 21 weeks. Thor was out for only 16 weeks. The difference there being Thor was only making 42K in its 16th week, whereas those movies were making 512K, 161K, 341K respectively in their 16th week. In week 14 IM got a 49% theater expansion that boosted its weekly gross 90% over the week prior; DMC @wk19(180% exp, 276% boost); TS3 @wk17(67%exp , 184%boost). All 3 ran at least a week past their video release, with TS3 running a month past and made about a million dollars more.

I think TA will be at ~590M by week 10. After that it gets hard to predict, but with strategic re-expansion by Disney sometime after, it should be able to muster the 10M needed to join the very exclusive 600M domestic club. Although, imo it will prob be at 602M by the end of its 20th week.

 

[TheVileOne]

$600 million - in the words of Doctor Strangelove, "It is not only possible, it is essential!"

[YT]2yfXgu37iyI[/YT]

 

[Paladin-Hoss]

Avengers is in the middle of only its 3rd week. IM (Marvel/Paramount), POTC: DMC (Disney), Toy Story 3 (Pixar/Disney) were in theaters at least 21 weeks. Thor was out for only 16 weeks. The difference there being Thor was only making 42K in its 16th week, whereas those movies were making 512K, 161K, 341K respectively in their 16th week. In week 14 IM got a 49% theater expansion that boosted its weekly gross 90% over the week prior; DMC @wk19(180% exp, 276% boost); TS3 @wk17(67%exp , 184%boost). All 3 ran at least a week past their video release, with TS3 running a month past and made about a million dollars more.

I think TA will be at ~590M by week 10. After that it gets hard to predict, but with strategic re-expansion by Disney sometime after, it should be able to muster the 10M needed to join the very exclusive 600M domestic club. Although, imo it will prob be at 602M by the end of its 20th week.

Wow...i guess i just never noticed that movies stay in theatres for THAT long. In the past seven years or so, i've only been to the theatres exactly three times... once to see first class...and twice for the Avengers.

Question; if The Avengers can muster 600 for domestic, how much do you think for WW total?

 

[Downhere]

Question; if The Avengers can muster 600 for domestic, how much do you think for WW total?

It all depends on Japan, but I think 1.45-1.5 billion (Domestic and International) WW is where it will settle, to become the third largest film WW.

 

[The Morningstar]

I think it's got a good chance of 2.7 billion.