The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[fixxxer1022]

just saw it again tonight with the wife and the place was totally packed.

 

[conan69]

Whats really coming out in the next month.... Prometheus, Madagascar3... Brave is the end of June. With bad word of mouth spreading, I see MIB dying off quickly.

Avengers can still linger well into June, it hasnt even been out a month yet.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Several points...

First off, films arent judged solely on domestic revenue anymore. MIB already has passed 200 million worldwide. Sony wont lose money on the project, therefore the decision to push forward instead of kill the project after they had sunk over 100 million into it likely turned out to be a good call afterall. Thats not to say there is going to be a MIB4 or anything, just that a 4 day 70 mil was the 11th biggest memorial day opening. Not spectacular, not a huge failure either....

Secondly, coming from a huge Spiderman fan, I cant say I expect a huge monetary turnout for this movie unless word of mouth is spectacular. The majority of my friends who still like comic movies are generally negative about this mostly due to the previous movie. It may be like Batman Begins, where the reboot of the franchise needs to simmer through a bit before the public will return en-mass to the franchise. the only real difference is that Batman waited a long time and had multiple sub-par movies before rebooting.

Sony gets only half of MIB3 worldwide total. So even if it manages to make 600 m worldwide, Sony keeps 300 m.

Sound like alot until you realize they paid 220 million for production and at least 80 million for marketing.

They'll make a profit eventually with dvd sales and tv rights but I doubt there will be a MIB4.

 

[Raiden]

Secondly, coming from a huge Spiderman fan, I cant say I expect a huge monetary turnout for this movie unless word of mouth is spectacular. The majority of my friends who still like comic movies are generally negative about this mostly due to the previous movie. It may be like Batman Begins, where the reboot of the franchise needs to simmer through a bit before the public will return en-mass to the franchise. the only real difference is that Batman waited a long time and had multiple sub-par movies before rebooting.

Well, I think BB was only 8 years removed from Batman & Robin, and back then it was a relatively short period of time for a franchise to reboot itself. But since then, both MOS and ASM reboot their franchises even sooner than BB did. I think Hollywood has disregard any grace period for reboots; they'll just do it as soon as they can replace the original team of filmmakers and cast with a new team.

 

[TheVileOne]

Yeah but this is only 5 years for Spider-Man. And only 6 years for Superman.

And honestly, I just don't think I need to see another origin movie.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

IMO unless we get a really polarizing film (ala Hulk or SR) TASM is going to do BIG business, simply because it's Spidey. I think a bigger concern might be TDKR, because the one-two punch by TA and TASM of uplifting superhero movies could possibly taint the audience's perceptions when they're subjected to TDKR's more somber story.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Fantastic Four is going to be another origin movie.

On topic, 600 million is a lock and I am willing to bet 600 USD on it.
Beating Titanic's 660 million though...not so sure.

This place is going to be BONKERS around Thursday or Friday when Avengers passes the 534 million domestic mark.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

This place is going to be BONKERS around Thursday or Friday when Avengers passes the 534 million domestic mark.

Eh, more likely they're going to be all "ho hum, just another milestone". You see, everyone knew TA would be this successful.

 

[Xeno]

Yeah but this is only 5 years for Spider-Man. And only 6 years for Superman.

And honestly, I just don't think I need to see another origin movie.

Spider-Man's origin was told so recently that the reboot seems unnecessary and tedious. The writers have changed some things, but from what I've read they haven't improved on the Lee/Ditko origin at all. In fact, the new version sounds ludicrous to me. Instead of rehashing things the audience has already seen and adding unnecessary new elements, they should have done what Kevin Feige proposes to do with the Marvel franchises and continue the story with new actors, but without another version of the origin.

 

[buttercup]

Eh, more likely they're going to be all "ho hum, just another milestone". You see, everyone knew TA would be this successful.

LOL speak for yourself. I don't think I drew breath until it passed $1B world-wide.

As for ASM, I still think the movie has yet to completely disprove the suspicions that it's going to bring anything new to the table. Though SM3 was a disappointment, most people still have good feelings about the trilogy and this new movie seems jarring: too soon, and pretty much a retread origin story. Also: reboots have a tendency to under-perform -- The Incredible Hulk, Batman Begins, Superman Returns, X-Men: First Class, even when they're good movies.

So I see it under-performing domestically and doing pretty well overseas, so enough to ensure a sequel (which Sony has already scheduled! wow). The one problem is the reported production budget. I've heard it's anywhere from $150M - $220M. I really, really hope it's the lower end, because I don't see it making enough $$$ to justify a $200M+ budget.

 

[thalidomide]

Does it still have a shot on making $600M domestically?

 

[rashad]

I think a bigger concern might be TDKR, because the one-two punch by TA and TASM of uplifting superhero movies could possibly taint the audience's perceptions when they're subjected to TDKR's more somber story.

I doubt it. And as the recent TV Spots have shown, there will still be a fair share of fun/lighthearted moments to balance the bleak and somber tone.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

Does it still have a shot on making $600M domestically?

At this point it's more of a question of WHEN it does it rather than IF, and how much further beyond even that it can go.

 

[Vartha]

Wow impressive! Avengers still made 46 mil over the weekend.

 

[Vartha]

At this point it's more of a question of WHEN it does it rather than IF, and how much further beyond even that it can go.

Yeah I agree, I'm sure Avengers will be in theaters for awhile yet, and with two or more weekends like this last one it'll break 600 easy

 

[YoMaMa84]

Does it still have a shot on making $600M domestically?

The movie haven't been out for a month yet and is about to pass TDK's $530+ mill, so I think it'll pass $600 mill easily.

 

[marcvader]

Where are the WW totals at and when does it open in Japan?

 

[Xeno]

Where are the WW totals at and when does it open in Japan?

The Avengers is at $523,563,000 domestically/$1,305,463,000 worldwide now. It opens in Japan in August. It needs a little over $9 million to top TDK in the US and around $23 million to overtake HP8 worldwide. After this week it should hit both marks.

 

[marcvader]

The Avengers is at $523,563,000 domestically/$1,305,463,000 worldwide now. It opens in Japan in August. It needs a little over $9 million to top TDK in the US and around $23 million to overtake HP8 worldwide. After this week it should hit both marks.

Very nice, thanks.

 

[Jordanstine]

This place is going to be BONKERS around Thursday or Friday when Avengers passes the 534 million domestic mark.

It's going to break TDK likely on Friday. It will be ~ $531 million on Thursday and ~ $538 million Friday.

Projections for the week:

Tuesday = $2.90M (cume $526.46M)
Wednesday = $2.65M (cume $529.05M)
Thursday = $2.55M (cume $531.60M)
Friday = $6.95M (cume $538.55M)
Saturday = $11.10M (cume $549.65M)
Sunday = $6.80M (cume $556.45M)

5th Weekend approx cume $24M.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm pretty stunned and amazed at the success of this film. I certainly thought the opening weekend record and 1B world wide was possible if not guaranteed, but I never thought 600M domestic.

The only film this year that really has a shot at it, will be the Hobbit, because it will have 3D and IMAX boost, and I think it's pretty widely anticipated.

But it's just incredible to see what this movie has done!

 

[uniqueweasel]

I am totally surprised at the way this has performed at the box office, I thought it would do well, but I admittedly have been one of the people who has had to eat there words. After seeing the film though it deservedly has had so much attention, and doing business like this creates it's own hype for the next sequel.

 

[danoyse]

Yeah but this is only 5 years for Spider-Man. And only 6 years for Superman.

And honestly, I just don't think I need to see another origin movie.

My friend's 8-year-old son, who loves Spiderman, is completely mystified as to why they're "doing Spiderman 1 all over again" (his words). When he first heard there was going to be a new Spiderman movie in 3D, he was completely bummed out that it wasn't Spiderman 4.

When second graders are frustrated that their movies are already being rebooted, it's just not a good sign.

 

[Scarlettess]

gonna go see this for my 3rd time tonight with my Mum, she loves superhero movies and is excited to see this. (it's also gonna be a Mum and daughter thing, as neither of us can remember the last time we went to cinema together.) it's the last showing at my local cinema tonight so it'll be my last time probably.

 

[Scarlettess]

My friend's 8-year-old son, who loves Spiderman, is completely mystified as to why they're "doing Spiderman 1 all over again" (his words). When he first heard there was going to be a new Spiderman movie in 3D, he was completely bummed out that it wasn't Spiderman 4.

When second graders are frustrated that their movies are already being rebooted, it's just not a good sign.

I think the marketing of the movie has been sub-par too, especially because they seem to be trying to sell the untold story side, which I think is bad for them as the GA just see it as a cop out. The origin will be different though, especially with the parents angle and this is more about his journey to become Spider-Man, something the first one didn't really cover after he got his powers and got his suit. (not to mention, and a quipping spidey!) I think it has the potential to be the underdog of the summer, but I'm not expecting to do huge numbers though. Maybe a little more than BB did.