The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Jordanstine]

Based on the pattern vs TDK I estimate it will pull down no more than 10,088,493.43. Its pretty much been taking in 117% of what TDK has done . it could go as low as 9,485,000, but i have a feeling it will be higher than that. TDK made 8,600,000 on its same weekend.

Its only about 12 million from passing TDK in adjusted domestic. After that its when it reaches 600 million, Im not real sure what its next big target could realisticly be. It wont reach titanic without a miracle or second release and Avatar is freakishly out of sight....

$9.5 million is still too high.

These were my projected estimates 2 weeks ago:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=23393037#post23393037

5th weekend (June 1) = $21.0 million
6th weekend (June 8) = $12.3 million
7th weekend (June 15) = $7.5 million
8th weekend (June 22) = $4.2 million
9th weekend (June 29) = $2.4 million

It should do between $7.5 to $8.0 million for the weekend, maybe as high as $8.2 if Father's Day Sunday is real good.

Either way, Avengers should hit something around $591 million by the end of the month.

 

[Octavias]

$9.5 million is still too high.

These were my projected estimates 2 weeks ago:

http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?p=23393037#post23393037

It should do between $7.5 to $8.0 million for the weekend, maybe as high as $8.2 if Father's Day Sunday is real good.

Either way, Avengers should hit something around $591 million by the end of the month.

Again, i am basing mine off of projections straight off of TDK . On this particular weekend (43,44, and 45th day of release TDK did 2,141,000, 3,246,000 and 3,235,000 respectively... Weekend days for TA have varied between 110% to 120% of what TDK did on its repective day of late. TDK has yet to beat TA on any repective weekend day.

Ta also has repeatedly placed higher than its estimates. Fridays estimate was only 2,185,000, still higher than TDK, but not quite the 110% that we have been seeing... It wouldnt surprise me if those totals were low by 50,000 to 100,000 as they have been, but even then they will be slightly lower than the 2,350,000 I was expecting. I think Saturday will be in the 3,500,000 range and sunday wont be far off of that

 

[Octavias]

And while there isnt anything scientific about my projections (I just rationalized that the movies play to the same audiance and plugged the numbers into a spreadsheet)They have been pretty good so far... The patterns are pretty clear... the first month while school was in TA had a huge gain on each weekend day, but was only doing about 80% of it on each weekday... the numbers were very consistant (IE every sunday would do 130% of what TDK did...) the only oddball was the monday holiday where TA had a huge turnout. About the 32nd day of release (when school started to let out) Ta's weekday numbers started beating TDK's while its weekend numbers dropped to closer to 110% of what TDK did, with some dips and some peaks...

TA is pretty much pacing itself at overall 117% of TDK's numbers. It hasnt dropped below 116.94% of the overall take at the same day of release as TDK in the last three weeks... again pretty consistant. if you know anywhere I could upload the excel file to i will... it isnt perfect but its been really close so far...

 

[mclay18]

Agreed that Disney will put it out if they want to, regardless of Whedon's stance.

Disney merely releases Marvel's films, like Paramount did. If anyone is going to commission a theatrical extended re-release of TA, it will be Marvel Studios' call. I'm pretty sure Disney would be thrilled to do it if they wanted.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Would disney want to annoy whedon though? I'm positive they'd want him for the sequel and he's already hesitant about committing so this would be foolish by disney to antagonize him.

Disney merely releases Marvel's films, like Paramount did. If anyone is going to commission a theatrical extended re-release of TA, it will be Marvel Studios' call. I'm pretty sure Disney would be thrilled to do it if they wanted.

That's not correct disney owns the entire marvel entity from comics to films the whole shebang.

 

[The Ironstar]

Everything underperformed this weekend. ROA decreases with each updated estimate.

Those "hairy" metal band songs done them in

 

[Hawkingbird]

We only have it on about once a day now in our cinema

 

[Octavias]

It look like the estimates have it at 8.848 for this weekend only about 103% of TDK's totals... :/ will have to wait and see for finals on monday..

 

[Tymminator]

Dupe post

 

[Mysteryman]

I dont see much of a Fathers Day bump for TA at this point .
But, Prometheus had a bit of a bump in its actuals last week, so you never know .

 

[spider-neil]

so is 600m (without a rerelease) looking likely or unlikely?

 

[Tymminator]

So it looks close to the low end of my estimate, but I bet it still goes up a little bit when we see actuals.

 

[Mysteryman]

Those "hairy" metal band songs done them in

I wanted to see ROA but , it just didnt look like it had a story, So,I skipped it .

 

[Tymminator]

so is 600m (without a rerelease) looking likely or unlikely?

Oh, it will happen, mid July at the very, very latest.

 

[Mysteryman]

so is 600m (without a rerelease) looking likely or unlikely?

Why not 605-608?
625 anyone?

 

[Superhero 101]

Might pass 600 by the time TASM releases

 

[Tymminator]

Might pass 600 by the time TASM releases

Indeed. IMO, I think that around this time is when it most likely happens.

 

[Octavias]

so is 600m (without a rerelease) looking likely or unlikely?

All but assured. the question now is where it ends up between 610 to 625 million... as I said before, at this point till it left theaters TDK made 34 million dollars. since TA is doing slightly higher than that even if it just matched what TDK did it would be around 615 million. if it continues to pace at 117% it will be closer to 620 million, if it drops off due to theater loss it may fall as low as 610, but there is little chance it wont break 600 on its initial release

 

[sorka]

I dont see much of a Fathers Day bump for TA at this point .
But, Prometheus had a bit of a bump in its actuals last week, so you never know .

Except that TA made more this Sunday than it did last Sunday, so instead of dropping 30 to 40% sunday over sunday, it actually went up resulting in a total drop of only 20% for the weekend. That's quite a bump from fathers day as it only occurred on Sunday.

 

[sorka]

so is 600m (without a rerelease) looking likely or unlikely?

It's not even a question. It only has to make $13M more which it did in the last 6 days alone and it will be out for months and months to come.

 

[Tymminator]

All but assured. the question now is where it ends up between 610 to 625 million... as I said before, at this point till it left theaters TDK made 34 million dollars. since TA is doing slightly higher than that even if it just matched what TDK did it would be around 615 million. if it continues to pace at 117% it will be closer to 620 million, if it drops off due to theater loss it may fall as low as 610, but there is little chance it wont break 600 on its initial release

Indeed. It should also beat it day for day this week as well, except for Monday which for TDK it's 46th day was bumped up for Labor Day.

 

[Octavias]

Indeed. It should also beat it day for day this week as well, except for Monday which for TDK it's 46th day was bumped up for Labor Day.

yep I figure sometime this week TA will see its first day under 1 mil... And this could be the first week TDK will beat it due to that 2.5 mil it took in on monday, but it will be close... TA took a little over 2 mil more than TDK did the last two weeks, it should get slightly beat out but it could eeek this one out too...

 

[Mysteryman]

Fathers Day could give TA a bit of a boost .
That would be nice .

 

[Superhero 101]

I think TA will end around 610-615

 

[danoyse]

I wanted to see ROA but , it just didnt look like it had a story, So,I skipped it .

It doesn't, but the stage version is hilarious.

Haven't seen the movie yet.