The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Bruce Malone]

Sometime today TA will have passed TDK for 28th on the all time adjusted domestic list, making TA the highest grossing comic Book Movie in EVERYTHING...wow!


28
The Dark Knight
$588,314,100

29
Marvel's The Avengers
$587,927,710

To be fair the adjusted is only for inflation rates it doesn't take into account the 3d ticket prices that avengers had over TDK. Which is why i'd be very curious if accurate total tickets sales could be found.

Yes Buzz Killington checked in.

 

[Octavias]

To be fair the adjusted is only for inflation rates it doesn't take into account the 3d ticket prices that avengers had over TDK. Which is why i'd be very curious if accurate total tickets sales could be found.

Yes Buzz Killington checked in.

ticket counts arent accurate unfortunetly. Ticket prices can vary from theater to theater and even time to time. Ive said before I think the same crowd that saw TDK is seeing TA. TA has earned 117% of what TDK had done at the same point so far, I dont think 3d can account for all of that. also Im not sure how inflation from 08 til now really comes into play... maybe its different elsewhere, but all the theaters i go to cost the same as they did 5 years ago....

 

[Tymminator]

Plus I don't know about you guys, but generally where I am IMAX prices are a little higher it seems than 3D.

 

[tek]

it is irrelevant whether it is 3d 2d or imax. people had a choice . the new record stands

 

[kedrell]

Ultimately the admissions arguement is BS. To my mind the inflation arguement is a bit more legit when the two films compared are not from entirely seperate time periods, which TA & TDK are for the most part(that is, they're close enough for comparison). The fact is that the public liked movie x enough to shell out a certain amount of $ and movie y either did better than that or not. I don't see how #'s of tickets sold trumps that.

 

[Xeno]

Plus I don't know about you guys, but generally where I am IMAX prices are a little higher it seems than 3D.

IMAX tickets cost around 20% more here than 3D. If people are going to try to adjust for ticket prices, that's where they should start. Though it's a fool's errand to do so since there is no way to know exactly how many tickets were sold to any movie as that data is not revealed. Estimated sales shouldn't be used, just cold hard numbers.


The argument that movie grosses should be adjusted for 3D ticket prices is ludicrous anyway. Quite frankly, it's the last refuge for those who want to cling to the belief that films that grossed less than The Avengers actually performed better at the box office. We all nee to believe whatever makes life bearable, but mere belief doesn't make something true.

 

[pyromaniac]

omg, I wonder what they're thinking right now.

It's funny how evidence can come back to 'haunt' them, because they're right here, written for plain all to see. When you make sweeping statements with such certitude and condescension, leaving little room for the benefit of the doubt, of course you'd come off as Mr Know-It-Less after a while.

Of course, I speak generally.

 

[Bruce Malone]

This is not to take away from the avengers success at all but i've been arguing this since the avatar days that movie tickets seem to be the only units sold that are not counted. When it comes to cd sales, books, pretty much every other media you get unit totals.

It just gives an idea of actually how many people actually saw a film regardless of different ticketing prices and takes away some of the guessing work with inflation/3d prices etc.

 

[spider-neil]

it is irrelevant whether it is 3d 2d or imax. people had a choice . the new record stands

Techincally in a lot of theatres they didn't (have a choice).

 

[tek]

they can choose not to go technically

 

[04nbod]

Reboot in 3 years

TDKR underperforming wouldn't stop that anyway. It will succeed and fail on its own merits.

To be fair the adjusted is only for inflation rates it doesn't take into account the 3d ticket prices that avengers had over TDK. Which is why i'd be very curious if accurate total tickets sales could be found.

Yes Buzz Killington checked in.

You are forgetting, the Avengers has around 3 months left in release and has already topped TDK. Any price difference will be more than made up.

 

[Radioactive1980]

You are forgetting, the Avengers has around 3 months left in release and has already topped TDK. Any price difference will be more than made up.

Err what?
U saying it's going to playing in cinemas for another 3 months? LOL

 

[Tymminator]

1) Avengers just started its seventh week, at which it's still pulling in decent numbers.

2) except for a few exceptions, almost everything else is underperforming.

Avengers is not gonna be pulled from theaters any earlier then the end of its 15th week (Hunger Games is going on its 13th) and will most likely go to its 18th-20th week, hence the reason they said three months.

 

[Tymminator]

I want to add, I am being pretty darn conservative, the above is by no means a hard cap on when I think it's gonna leave the theaters.

 

[Tymminator]

Adding further, I'm speaking US wise, not WW. As quite a few places got it before we in the states did. In August Japan gets it and that will surely sweeten the pot.

Damn, this is a good year for comic fans, between this and TDKR (I'm even warming up to TASM) I gotta say this is the best comic movie year yet, in fact if it wasn't for the comic based movies, this year for movies so far would be a letdown. Comic movies saved the summer.

 

[Weadazoid]

Adding further, I'm speaking US wise, not WW. As quite a few places got it before we in the states did. In August Japan gets it and that will surely sweeten the pot.

Damn, this is a good year for comic fans, between this and TDKR (I'm even warming up to TASM) I gotta say this is the best comic movie year yet, in fact if it wasn't for the comic based movies, this year for movies so far would be a letdown. Comic movies saved the summer.

A month or two ago it would have been a ridicuous thought but I now think this movie will cross the 900 million mark in Interational markets

 

[Xeno]

they can choose not to go technically

This is an important point. People who babble about the "3D boost" from higher ticket prices never seem to consider the fact that those higher prices might also lead to a drag on sales. Some would-be viewers will decide not to go see movies where 3D is the only option because they don't want to pay the higher prices or can't afford to. In places where 3D is the only option that could be a significant factor in ticket sales. The possible negative effect of higher 3D prices is impossible to quantify, but if people want to play the game of pretending to account for the effect of 3D on the box office they should be honest and consider the downside, too.

 

[Tymminator]

Avengers held very well yesterday as well.

 

[Captain Hulk]

Looks like TASM getting good reviews... Sincerely hopes it does well....

 

[Iceman]

This is an important point. People who babble about the "3D boost" from higher ticket prices never seem to consider the fact that those higher prices might also lead to a drag on sales. Some would-be viewers will decide not to go see movies where 3D is the only option because they don't want to pay the higher prices or can't afford to. In places where 3D is the only option that could be a significant factor in ticket sales. The possible negative effect of higher 3D prices is impossible to quantify, but if people want to play the game of pretending to account for the effect of 3D on the box office they should be honest and consider the downside, too.

There's no 'might' about it. The simplest economics.

If it wasn't the case you could keep adding features as technology improves and in the future sell Turbo Steroid 8D Triple Imax Virtual Reality 400mph Exploding Rotator Seat tickets for $700 each and you would get the same sales as if you sold only standard tickets at the regular price of lets say $30 (adding on inflation only).

 

[Captain Hulk]

We can pretty much say Iron Man 3 will get a VERY significant b.o gross boost due to TA

 

[Captain Hulk]

There's no 'might' about it. The simplest economics.

If it wasn't the case you could keep adding features as technology improves and in the future sell Turbo Steroid 8D Triple Imax Virtual Reality 400mph Exploding Rotator Seat tickets for $700 each and you would get the same sales as if you sold only standard tickets at the regular price of lets say $30 (adding on inflation only).

yay! i'm not the only one with brains.....

 

[Octavias]

As it was explained to me the adjusted number would take into account 3d sales more or less, since it factors them into the average ticket prices number... The average ticket price has held flat for the last 3 years... TDK came out when it was still estimated at 7.2-7.5. the increase in 3D is why it jumped a lot in a stagnant economy, or so I am told... the saturation of 3d is why its holding steady, So I guess a movie like TDK not in 3d wouldnt really earn much more than it did this year than in 08,09, because standard ticket prices have been pretty flat....

 

[Jordanstine]

TA is at $589M right now.

I forecasted back in May that it would reach the $590M mark by June 29th... looks like TA might actually cross that today on the 20th, 9 days earlier.

That means $600M by the time July even begins!

 

[Octavias]

Its going to be interesting to see if TAS and TDKR knocks TA down more or if it encourages comic fans to see it again while at the theater.... right now its still taking over a million a day when everyone was forcasting it would be under than by now