The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[marcvader]

i noticed TA leapfrogged MIB3 this past weekend and is within 1 million from the top 5. Do you think TA can leapfrog, Rock of Ages, Thats My Boy and Snow White Huntsman (THOR lol) and possible even Abraham Lincoln? Except for TED, the next week's new releases dont look all that exciting and Brave should hold on to 1 for two weeks.

I predict TA will place around 6-7 next week

I also noticed TA is losing theatres in droves, but it is miraculously still holding up with solid numbers. Is there a chance for TA to gain back theatres? Cant the cinemas see that TA is the gift that keeps on giving? the main reason it is dropping is because they are giving up theatres.

I certainly hope they re-release TA (extended cut?) in IMAX when all this summer movie craze dies down in September. That should make a strong case to dethrone Titanic re-release.

If an extended cut is released it wouldn't be fair to add its take to the total as it then becomes another film.

 

[Octavias]

If an extended cut is released it wouldn't be fair to add its take to the total as it then becomes another film.

No they always add those to the Totals... there are a half dozen incarnations of star wars that have been released, some withh added or changed scenes, yet they all add together... titanic was rereleased in 3d, where it earned 58 million, and that is the only reason TA isnt passing it for #2 all time this week.... Avatar was rereleased.... they all add together

 

[marcvader]

A rerelease is fine but if you add 35 minutes, which is what was alledged, them that in my opinion is a different film.

 

[Octavias]

A rerelease is fine but if you add 35 minutes, which is what was alledged, them that in my opinion is a different film.

Again that simply isnt how the movie industry does it. if they add or subtract from the movie or change things in it it still remains the same movie for totals... several scenes are often added or subtracted from a movie when it goes to DVD or TV... sometimes in rereleases the new footage stays in the movie...


the most famous example of changing things would be Star Wars, from 1977, which had a rerelease in 1982, but then had a special edition come out in 1997 with added and changed footage... it will be released again in 2015 in 3d and all four of those runs will be added together for its totals...

remember back in the day movies were often released dozens of times and always totaled together... just because it is a directors cut or modified version doesnt make it different in the eyes of the accountants.....

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Exactly Octavias. Not really a matter of personal opinion. All about the Benjamins.

 

[Tymminator]

Indeed. I don't care if it's Blade Runner, the Star Wars original trilogy, Titanic or whatever...it all gets counted along with the original flicks.

 

[blinkinrogue]

Yes I think it will fall in slightly closer to 6 million and it will go over 600 million by thurday or friday... Saturday at worse... The only bad news is Monday will likely be the first day under 1 million for the movie... that will be on its 52nd day... I dont think that happened to that freak Avatar till its 80th day...Lol I think Cameron just put 100 million of his own money into that movie... still dont understand what anyone saw in it

haha this could be true t:t:, although how it did 2 B in other parts of the world is just crazy, in my country (third world but whatever lols) avengers blasted avatar in terms of b.o. wonder what the official budget for this film though, including promotion, i wont be surprised if it doubled the avengers lols (plus cameron's massive salary). avatar was good but not really a classic i think.

regarding japan, i really doubt it will reach 100 M there, considering the grosses of IM, thor, and other marvel characters there and even spiderman3 made about 58M tops (and he is by far more popular than any single avenger), so i hope it gets around 40 M or above. my mind tells me around 35 M but i hope im wrong and tops SM3 numbers...

 

[T"Challa]

Yeah i thinks Avengers makes 50 milll tops in Japan. None of the MCU movies were big hits there, and theres' always piracy to deal with. Unfortunately, there are some solid quality bootlegs out there online.

 

[blinkinrogue]

can fox now pls return the rights of xmen to marvel and disney and make a new trilogy with no powerless rogue and a slightly shorter wolverine t: plus massive marketing by disney and i think the x-men will be back to prominence in the movies.


make this happen disney get back all your properties (though unlikely any studio would let go of spidey or XM )

 

[eddy]

I want X-Men to stay separate from the rest of Marvel. But Vaughn has to keep making X-Men movies til the day he dies.

 

[blinkinrogue]

lol i can see it coming jean returning and the avengers fight the x-men, but no P5 of course.... just kidding!

off course they will be separate, but oh the possibilities

back on topic, anybody think it will max out at 615 M domestic? even surpassing the original run of titanic will be a big, big feat

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Its definitely surpassing Titanics initial run.

 

[pyromaniac]

Where's the Avengers on the second list?

That's because the list was made in January 2012. Obviously the new list will be revised to include TA's ranking. I think they made this list on a yearly basis, to allow for other movies to potentially affect this list.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

This movie is making Marvel and Disney mad bank. Making and breaking records left and right. Glad to see that its still making money at the BO even after a month of being released

 

[eddy]

Is there a list of highest grossing films of the summer blockbuster season? I know Avengers is #1 and Dark Knight is #2 but what about the rest?

 

[KangConquers]

Yeah i thinks Avengers makes 50 milll tops in Japan. None of the MCU movies were big hits there, and theres' always piracy to deal with. Unfortunately, there are some solid quality bootlegs out there online.

Invalid argument. Avengers has completely disproven the "Superhero movies aren't big internationally" argument in every other market in the world. This isn't performing like a genre flick, it's performing like a top tier blockbuster, with no prejudices. There's no reason to expect Japan to be markedly different.

My logic is that it's beaten Harry Potter Handily in almost every single market outside of Western Europe. Harry Potter managed to draw $125 M in Japan. I see no reason why Avengers, which has beaten Harry Potter in every other Asian market, can't do at least $100 M in Japan. Possibly up to $150 M.

Again, don't feed me the "No superhero movie has done it" argument. That's the same attitude that had Avengers making $700 M, a figure it's more than doubled.

 

[thalidomide]

It's the most Highest Grossing film here in the Philippines.

 

[Hawkingbird]

I'm not expecting huge numbers, but then again I'm not expecting small or even medium. More bigish

 

[pyromaniac]

Invalid argument. Avengers has completely disproven the "Superhero movies aren't big internationally" argument in every other market in the world. This isn't performing like a genre flick, it's performing like a top tier blockbuster, with no prejudices. There's no reason to expect Japan to be markedly different.

My logic is that it's beaten Harry Potter Handily in almost every single market outside of Western Europe. Harry Potter managed to draw $125 M in Japan. I see no reason why Avengers, which has beaten Harry Potter in every other Asian market, can't do at least $100 M in Japan. Possibly up to $150 M.

Again, don't feed me the "No superhero movie has done it" argument. That's the same attitude that had Avengers making $700 M, a figure it's more than doubled.

He's got a point there, T'Challa lol. It's basically buckled the trend so I don't think there's any reason to be conservative about Japan, unless if you were deliberately lowballing.

 

[Raiden]

Invalid argument. Avengers has completely disproven the "Superhero movies aren't big internationally" argument in every other market in the world. This isn't performing like a genre flick, it's performing like a top tier blockbuster, with no prejudices. There's no reason to expect Japan to be markedly different.

My logic is that it's beaten Harry Potter Handily in almost every single market outside of Western Europe. Harry Potter managed to draw $125 M in Japan. I see no reason why Avengers, which has beaten Harry Potter in every other Asian market, can't do at least $100 M in Japan. Possibly up to $150 M.

Again, don't feed me the "No superhero movie has done it" argument. That's the same attitude that had Avengers making $700 M, a figure it's more than doubled.

Good point. I think The Avengers have proved that it can be perceived as just a superhero movie, but a huge event film like Avatar and Titanic were before it (both of whom are placed #1 & 2 in front of TA in the highest-grossing blockbusters in cinematic history). It's the same as TDK did which also transformed the way audience look at these kinds of genre movies. I really hope Japan would add another 100 million to TA's coffer, and doing it despite being released more than 2 months after its U.S. release.

 

[Jordanstine]

The Japanese informant at BoxOffice.com is predicting The Avengers will likely open between $24 - $29 million in Japan (basically about 3x's the money Iron Man made there).

Saying that TA is being released at the tail end of Summer over there.

They're even saying that the debut of The Amazing Spider-Man (Japan's most beloved hero) will be a little lower as initially expected over there too (it comes out in Japan this weekend).

 

[Jordanstine]

The Avengers now at $598,425,442.

Which means it will hit $600 million by Tuesday.

 

[Tony Stark]

I am absolutely amazed on how this film keeps trucking along. It jumpshot over MIB 3 for the weekend, and most likely will jump over Rock of Ages and TMB next weekend (and possibly SWATH) so even with all the new releases this film will still be in the top 10 for a while.

 

[Mysteryman]

Is there a list of highest grossing films of the summer blockbuster season? I know Avengers is #1 and Dark Knight is #2 but what about the rest?

That list usually comes out around or just before Labor Day Weekend.

 

[Vartha]

The Avengers now at $598,425,442.

Which means it will hit $600 million by Tuesday.

t:t:t:t: WOOHOOOO we can hope it will!!!