The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

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Tony Stark said:
Sorry, I meant how many days did Avatar take to get to 1B? Avengers should be 17 days.
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Oh! Sorry. According to Wikipedia, Avatar and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows II both took 19 days to reach $1B. So The Avengers could break that record.
 
Very impressive how quickly Avengers has made that cash even with a late US release. All that talk of competition turned out to matter little as it's almost up to $1BN before the other guys have had a chance to make an impact on it.
 
35y3ie.jpg
 
OK, guys. Taking the number today and plugging in 2nd week multipliers, I'm getting:

Based on IM1
Fri: 35M Sat: 50M Sun: 35M = 120M

Based on IM2
Fri: 29M Sat 44M Sun: 28M = 101M

Based on SM3

Fri: 36M Sat: 53M Sun: 33M = 122M !!!!

Now I see scenario 1 and 3 being very unlikely. so more likely it will follow IM2's second weekend multipliers or slightly higher or lower, and would be more in line with a 50% week 2 drop.

Anyway I thought that was interesting running those numbers based on Thursday.
 
Jordanstine said:
http://www.deadline....550k-midnights/

Nikki's headline:

FIRST BOX OFFICE: ‘Dark Shadows’ Disappointing $27M-$30M Weekend: ‘The Avengers’ Nearing $1B Global Cume & $80+M Domestic

Friday 1PM: Coming...

----

So far just $80+M is being reported (we've all seen these kinds of reporting last week)
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Nikki has pretty much blown her reputation over the past year. She used to be good, but she will never live down "67 - 80M not a record". After she already screwed up Hunger games.
 
2nd weekend record will be gone and today it should beat fastest to 300, and fastest to 350 by end of weekend.
 
Superhero 101 said:
Box office Mojo is predicting 95 milliion
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Looks like they all want to be conservative in their estimate. Well, they did that last week too, that's why none of them predicted 200M OW.
 
Avenger said:
While I wouldn't blame Feige for taking such a promotion if it were offered to him, I kind of hope he stays where he is for the time being. I think he's done a great job shepherding the MCU; better than I could have ever expected.
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Feige needs to stay with the MCU. He's as responsible as anyone for the success of the whole endeavor. He's like one of those old-time producers, like Irving Thalberg or David O. Selznick, who were creatives as well as businessmen. From what I've read, it was Feige who brought Joss Whedon on board and made a lot of the key decisions about the creative direction of the MCU.

Let's face it: if DC had someone like Feige, fans would be much, much closer to a Justice League movie. WB doesn't have a key executive who understands comic book movies in the same innate way as Feige.

(Just looked it up, and Selznick was probably the most important person in the genesis of Gone with the Wind, the highest grossing movie of all time still, because he did the casting and probably had more input in the movie than the succession of directors he brought on board... wow, the film went through THREE different directors. It was a massive and expensive undertaking, held together by Selznick.)
 
Box Office Mojo: $95M

Box Office.com: $111M

In other words... $103M average prediction
 
I'm hoping for about a 48% drop, or a second weekend of $108m give/take.

The film has made $803 million in 16 days of worldwide release.
So while most films of blockbuster status drop 50-65% for their second weekend Avengers is breaking rules. Ergo, my predict is staying on the 'buck the trend' rule till such a time as Avengers begins to act "normal".
 
I think the Avengers was more frontloaded that people here think. Many people saw it multiple times, but all in the first weekend. The movie will have decent legs, and will be well over 1b in the end, but its not doing Avatar or Titanic numbers. Not gonna happen. I predict around 90m this weekend.

Ive seen it twice so far, and plan to see it at least once more, so I'm not trolling here. If this were the 2nd week in June my prediction would be higher.
 
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Joeyjojo72 said:
I think the Avengers was more frontloaded that people here think. Many people saw it multiple times, but all in the first weekend. The movie will have decent legs, and will be well over 1b in the end, but its not doing Avatar or Titanic numbers. Not gonna happen. I predict around 90m this weekend.

Ive seen it twice so far, and plan to see it at least once more, so I'm not trolling here. If this were the 2nd week in June my prediction would be higher.
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I know it's anecdotal but there are tweets of showtimes being sold out for tonight(Friday).

In fairness for a film that doesn't have Cameron in the credits it is very spectacular.

It will be quite close to over the Billion mark by mid next week. Earlier if it's weekend numbers overseas and domestically are $100m-ish. So halfway to Titanic in 20-22 days is pretty darn spectacular.
 
Avenger said:
While I wouldn't blame Feige for taking such a promotion if it were offered to him, I kind of hope he stays where he is for the time being. I think he's done a great job shepherding the MCU; better than I could have ever expected.
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It's selfish, but I also hope that Feige stays at Marvel. He has done such a wonderful job of shaping the Marvel cinematic Universe and guiding its development that it would be criminal to remove him at this point. Iger may well see it that way. Feige could be far more valuable to Disney as the president of Marvel than he would be as Disney Films CEO. By shepherding more Marvel properties through development and creating many more franchises, Feige would eventually add billions more to Disney's bottom line. The prospect of ever-higher profits might be enough to keep him at his current post for the foreseeable future.
 
Joeyjojo72 said:
I think the Avengers was more frontloaded that people here think. Many people saw it multiple times, but all in the first weekend. The movie will have decent legs, and will be well over 1b in the end, but its not doing Avatar or Titanic numbers. Not gonna happen. I predict around 90m this weekend.

Ive seen it twice so far, and plan to see it at least once more, so I'm not trolling here. If this were the 2nd week in June my prediction would be higher.
Click to expand...

No one said it would do Avatar or Titanic. It will end higher than TDK's total, probably around 550M - 575M, and it has a chance of 600M

Even if it did 90M that eclipses the previous 2nd weekend record. Considering the cinemascore rating this will fare well in weeks to come and it will get an extra boost come memorial day.
 
Joeyjojo72 said:
I think the Avengers was more frontloaded that people here think. Many people saw it multiple times, but all in the first weekend. The movie will have decent legs, and will be well over 1b in the end, but its not doing Avatar or Titanic numbers. Not gonna happen. I predict around 90m this weekend.

Ive seen it twice so far, and plan to see it at least once more, so I'm not trolling here. If this were the 2nd week in June my prediction would be higher.
Click to expand...
That doesn't make sense. The 2nd weekend in June would be worse for this movie than the 2nd weekend in May. Movies in May have weaker weekdays and stronger weekends.
 
It's not just the Box Office guys...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/08/avengers-shawarma-scene-i_n_1500762.html

Shawarma Sales 80% up thanks to 'Avengers' post-credit Scene

Is shawarma benefitting from an "Avengers" bump?

In the recently released film, Iron Man (played by Robert Downey Jr.) suddenly craves the flavorful, spit-roasted Middle Eastern street food after a major battle scene.

"Have you ever tried shawarma?" Iron Man asks Captain America. "There's a shawarma joint about two blocks from here. I don't know what it is, but I want to try it."

Now local shawarma restaurants seem to be having a "moment" -- at least according to an informal poll by TMZ. Ro-Ro's Chicken, a Hollywood shawarma joint, told TMZ that sales have shot up 80 percent since the movie opened.
Click to expand...

2012-05-08-TheAvengersshawarma.jpg
 
Vartha said:
lol Right?
thalidomide, as long as the world doesn't end, Avengers will be in US theaters for at LEAST two months.
Click to expand...

We have until December! So I think it's a lock to stick around in theaters for 2 months easy.
 
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