The Avengers The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[PokeJ]

I saw MIB3 this afternoon, and it is a very AVERAGE film. I could definitely see it underachieving this weekend. My theater was about half full, and this theater isn't very big at all. The 3D was also atrocious. It hurt my eyes w/ bad field of depth.

 

[Vartha]

I haven't had problems with the 3d. Tho I used a type of 3d lenses to DRAW with that work with tiny prysims in the lenses. Totally different by seperating cool and warm colors to make images pop. Many people can't use THOSE lense either.
I saw it in both 2d and 3d. loved them both.

 

[bubbadoom]

So Avengers should pass the Dark Knight's domestic gross the end of next weekend [June 3] putting it at #3 - any chance of it catching up to Titanic? Here's hoping...

 

[kedrell]

It'll pass TDK on either wednesday or thursday(probably the latter) well ahead of the weekend. It should be at about $525M by Monday the 28th and that's only $8M shy of TDK's gross. It should make more than $8M between Tuesday-Thursday. Thursday also marks the end of TA's 4th week in domestic release. Worst case scenario is that it needs Friday's numbers to beat it.

 

[kedrell]

I think TA will cross $50M for the 4-day weekend. MIB3 should nab $80M for the same timeframe.

 

[Raiden]

It'll pass TDK on either wednesday or thursday(probably the latter) well ahead of the weekend. It should be at about $525M by Monday the 28th and that's only $8M shy of TDK's gross. It should make more than $8M between Tuesday-Thursday. Thursday also marks the end of TA's 4th week in domestic release. Worst case scenario is that it needs Friday's numbers to beat it.

It might not be a huge milestone, I'm still excited to see it happen.

 

[kedrell]

It's at $476,684,788 right now as of 3 full weeks in release. I say it'll pass $500M on Saturday(just barely) beating Avatar's record at getting to $500M in 32 days by 9 days.

 

[danoyse]

Well, I went to see the 9:40 showtime, and the place was more than half full. Not bad on an early weekday. There was laughters at the right places, and it still feels very festive even after 4 weeks. I think they will have a big weekend.

When I saw it last night, the crowd was so crazy you couldn't hear parts of the movie, especially the Hulk-smash. The laughter for that went on for so long that some guy just yelled "Oh, s***!" because he couldn't stop laughing and was totally out of breath.

 

[warhorse78]

When I saw it last night, the crowd was so crazy you couldn't hear parts of the movie, especially the Hulk-smash. The laughter for that went on for so long that some guy just yelled "Oh, s***!" because he couldn't stop laughing and was totally out of breath.

If the MTV movie awards were actually good, this would be a shoe in as funniest scene in a movie for the year. If you didn't laugh at that scene, sorry bud, then you have issues.

 

[spider-neil]

Posted this in another forum, but Sony is desperate to get MIB 3 going strong.

MIB 3 is already getting mixed reviews, hovering around the 65% range so far:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/men_in_black_iii/

But Sony has already spent north of $215 million (possibly $230 million) so much so that Sony is refusing to even pay for the 3D glasses.

Sony needs the upcoming 4-day weekend gross to at least hit $200 million world wide to guarantee that it doesn't flop.

It seems that it's tracking at least $90 million domestic (4-day opening).

Articles:

The Daily: "Sony's 'Men in Black 3' Nightmare"

Deadline: "Sony and Cinemas not budging on who pays for 3D Glasses"

Sony sound cheap and desparate. It kills me that they have my favorite superhero ever.
That said if Marvel owned Spidey then no way could they have afforded to put out The Avengers AND ASM in one year.

 

[Liam_H]

I read somewhere MIB3's budget is a lot closer to $300 million probably around $280 million due to complications with its production.

 

[Saitou Hajime]

That said if Marvel owned Spidey then no way could they have afforded to put out The Avengers AND ASM in one year.

Technically Disney would own Spidey, so they can produce his film while Marvel Studios does Avengers, allowing them to basically dominate 2012 with not one but two billion dollar juggernauts. Hell, that would've been one more mega-success to help wash away the stink of John Carter.

And while we're on the subject of box office cannibalization, Rth just posted that TA has around 11-12m for Friday, while MIB3 is at 16-17m with an outside shot at 18m.

 

[Raiden]

Technically Disney would own Spidey, so they can produce his film while Marvel Studios does Avengers, allowing them to basically dominate 2012 with not one but two billion dollar juggernauts. Hell, that would've been one more mega-success to help wash away the stink of John Carter.

Fortunately for Disney, I think the success of The Avengers (which is quite unprecedented since it becomes Disney's highest-grossed movie of all time) has already covered the stink of John Carter's failure. There's a poster over a the CHUD forum that had this to say about it:

I have a friend at Disney, and THE AVENGERS has definitely cheered things up around there pretty considerably. CARTER was seen as a marketing blunder, and the appropriate people have been sacked. Now the ship has been righted and everything's back to normal.

And while we're on the subject of box office cannibalization, Rth just posted that TA has around 11-12m for Friday, while MIB3 is at 16-17m with an outside shot at 18m.

If this turns out to be true, then TA's number is actually not that far away from MIB3's, and that is extremely impressive for a movie on its 4th week of release.

 

[TheVileOne]

I still can't fathom why they made MIB3 when MIB2 itself underperformed and was not as well received.

 

[Raiden]

I still can't fathom why they made MIB3 when MIB2 itself underperformed and was not as well received.

And the fact that they waited 10 years before making a follow-up sequel to MIB2, as well.

 

[TheVileOne]

I mean the thing is, Will Smith productions are getting such and such more expensive. The last movie only made like $400 million-ish worldwide and less than $200 million in the US. I imagine Sony spent on this movie alone close to the amount of money the second one brought in. This just seems to be wasteful spending by Sony at a time when they are in a tight spot and posting billions of dollars in losses.

 

[Raiden]

I mean the thing is, Will Smith productions are getting such and such more expensive. The last movie only made like $400 million-ish worldwide and less than $200 million in the US. I imagine Sony spent on this movie alone close to the amount of money the second one brought in. This just seems to be wasteful spending by Sony at a time when they are in a tight spot and posting billions of dollars in losses.

Yeah, I agree. I think Sony is in a desperate mode right now, and after the kind of money they put in for MIB3 and ASM they won't be able to have any JC-size mistake, and luckily for them I don't see either of these movies bombed like JC did. However, just because a movie makes money doesn't mean it will be able to cover the cost, so in the end Sony might still lose money due to the massive budget they bestowed on their summer tentpole movies.

 

[jacobed]

His last movie was Seven Pounds of course it didn't make much. It was a very average drama, not a blockbuster.

 

[The Morningstar]

Sony are obviously banking on the return of Big Willy to be a triumph. That with the MiB brand. Question is, are either of those too things that relevant anymore?

 

[Donut]

So I guess based on word of mouth for Men In Black 3. The Avengers could be back to the top soon

 

[Hotwire]

Still no numbers for Friday's box office?

 

[spider-neil]

Avengers is only Disney's 4th highest BO of all time? Which 3 movies have topped it? I'm guessing Toy Story 3 is one, what are the other 2?

 

[Saitou Hajime]

‏

@Boxoffice
Official Friday estimate: $9.684 million for 'The Avengers' from 3,918 locations. Location avg. = $2,472.

@giteshpandya
#Avengers #2 w/ $9.7M FRI heading to about $45M long wknd. May break $500M dom as early as today in record 23 days!

Damn, I guess Nikki was right for once.

 

[marcvader]

Avengers is only Disney's 4th highest BO of all time? Which 3 movies have topped it? I'm guessing Toy Story 3 is one, what are the other 2?

How is this posssible if Avengers is 4th all time? Im confused

 

[TheVileOne]

MIB hasn't been a relevant brand in 15 years. People overestimated Will Smith.

Just remember guys, MIB2 performed so poorly that Sony paired it up with Spider-Man for double features later in the summer of 2002. This pissed Marvel off royally and brought about a Sony/Marvel lawsuit at the time if anyone remembers.